weatherwiz

Using an OP static hour to quantify the pattern?

This is brutal...47F at CEF and only 60F at PBI

This is why why I thought it should be looked at lol. This makes the most sense and is the more correct method.

It seemed some were hot to trot because of Region 1.2. No matter how many times you tell people that is the most volatile region in terms of SST changes they don't want to listen.

I think that is a pretty good bet. The OND value probably comes in at around +1.8C is my guess.

I have to say...I am extremely confused as to what is meant and being discussed when the term persistence is being thrown around.

Yup. Quantifying a pattern change goes way beyond the sensible weather in someone's backyard. This is assessed on the large-scale and even at the hemisphere level. We can be in a pattern which elicits above-average temps/wet weather and then see the pattern change and up with above-average temps/dry weather...just because it remained above-average temp wise does not mean there was not a pattern change.

I think we need a thread dedicated to the explanation of what a pattern change actually means and is.

My mouth waters when I hear '57-58. That was my #1 favorite analog in my winter outlook.

Persistence works if you're in San Diego, CA.

I'm not sure it really works like that in Northern Hemisphere winter though. With the jet stream tending to be more volatile you get more ridge/trough patterns. I think it's difficult to get a set pattern to persist that long.

For at least 3 weeks? That's an awful long time.

Thanks for the explanation on this! As for the bolded...ehhh just thinking of ways we can just significantly alter things and on the more quicker side of the spectrum I am just getting a little nervous that if we keep harping on and reflecting on "subtle" changes this winter is going to turn into a dud very quickly. I see no reason to deviate from my winter outlook thoughts, but at some point going to have to ask myself, "where is the line between wishing and reality"?

Is it too late in the season to get any giant typhoons and better yet, a recurving typhoon?

February is a month where historically, we can rack up the snow numbers. We all could go into the last week of January and start February below-average in terms of snowfall and then come out of February quite a bit percent above.

Wouldn't mind a string of years of ENSO Neutral (slightly towards the warmer side) years.

Florida life

What I was thinking was after the cold November and when the MJO was much more favorable for us, we engulfed into a warmer pattern across the country (which seems very correlated to how you'd expect DEC to evolve during a stronger EL Nino) and as we did this the MJO fizzled out but it happened to do so in crappy phases. I agree that the MJO probably isn't really doing jack, but it's not really helping either. I think it's important to understand that the background state this winter is completely different than the past few years so those trying to say this winter will suck for the same reasons the last few did are totally wrong - but I think it's just becoming apparent subtle, small changes aren't going to get us anywhere. Forecast models continue to be insistent that tropical forcing ramps up and strengthens quite a bit in the IOD region...so maybe that will be the aid we need. Good point too about the lag...there would be quite a lag and with that...time may be ticking. If we don't see these changes start to actually take shape for another week - 10 days (or two weeks) we need to figure a lag in the 7-12 day spectrum...that gets us into the second week of January or so.

We may need something abrupt and significant to change and shake things up. The way everything seems to go now small subtle changes and baby steps just don't work out.

I am actually starting to get a little nervous. I was going to wait until the first or second week of January before eliciting those feelings but I think the MJO crapping out in phases 5-7 really screwed us. It's tough to tell if the changes moving forward or positive, but it seems to me it's kind of just the same stale pattern that becomes stagnant. The MJO does look to become more favorable, but unfortunately there might not be much for it to help with. Kind of worried that anything that looks better is more of a suppressed look.

About to go on a little cruise just off of Fort Lauderdale! Despite the clouds and breeze and light rain, it’s warm and a bit humid! We take. Merry Christmas and happy holidays everyone!

What luck

Jeans and a light jacket on

Cold is pointless without snow. Especially these past few mornings. Down in the teens both nights. I was nervous back in the summer that I would miss a big snowstorm this week but that’s not going to happen. Looks like winter kicks off when I get back.

Just landed at PBI. 78F!!! Don’t be jelly anyone