weatherwiz

hmmm I just realized I mistake I may have made earlier when looking at the NAM fronto. Been looking all around at 700mb frontogenesis maps. The focus here is going to be more in the 850-700mb layer than it would be 700-600 or 700-550mb layer. I just looked at the 850 fronto and its pretty wild. Great news too is lift would be strong enough to punch into the DGZ.

There will certainly be a tight gradient around there. Right along the water totals will be much less but you go a few miles inland and they'll probably get several inches.

Bufkit doesn't look bad for BOS. I could see BOS potentially getting in the 5-8'' range, especially if the banding blesses them.

Think it's becoming clear where the swath of highest totals will be southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, and central Mass into eastern Mass.

Nothing better than the sound of neighbors starting up snowblowers in preparation for the storm. Sometimes multiple neighbors will be doing so at once and it sounds like an symphony.

West Hartford is great. Phenomenal school system (or at least it was...not sure about anymore), clean, and low crime (though from what I read that's increased). Property taxes are disgusting though. And too keep this weather related, West Hartford can get some nasty weather...both snow and thunderstorms. Of course, being in the valley they can get screwed but if the CCB works out they can get crushed. Feb 06 I got around 27'', the '11 blizzard was another around 27'', and Feb 13 in that ball park too. There was a stretch I had hail at least once per summer for a stretch of like 7-8 years. I loved going to Rockledge Golf Course at times to watch the thunderstorms come in from the West. The tree damage across the city in the Oct 2011 snowstorm was wild. Some streets looked like an F0 tornado ripped through as they were just littered with branches, limbs, and leaves.

If Reggie nails this can we refer to the model as Mr. January moving forward?

I miss West Hartford...certainly got screwed at times, but was pretty fortunate to have three 2' snow events. I hate it here in Springfield. I so can't wait to move back into CT.

I like where I am in Springfield. I told my girlfriend this could be the biggest storm she's ever seen up here.

Or since it's January, "There we go to the golf course".

I forgot you can do x-sections. I'm pretty sure though you do need a mouse to do them.

One concern I've always had with this is where will your subsidence zone be? Anytime you are dealing with CCB you're going to have a subsidence zone. I was thinking some days ago we could see two fronto bands develop (one north closer to 700 warm front and one just north of the sfc low). Then it was a question would these two converge, and where? I think the one thing we have to watch is how organized this storm becomes...how tightly wrapped do the 850 and 700 lows get? As the system is developing and strengthening, the fronto band is going to be far removed from the lows...so this makes sense that dendrite's area could be in a great spot. But as or if things tighten, we would see the banding drop south, closer to the lows. This is going to be important when looking for the higher amounts across Connecticut.

I've been in contact with Walt and the hope is it will be fixed soon. I've been mostly using the 700 fronto on the NAM on cod or TT.

I think this is a pretty tough forecast for CT. I guess though it depends on what one is expecting in terms of snowfall totals but I would hedge towards the lower side of the spectrum.

I don't like seeing this for CT

Not only is NAM pretty juiced but was looking at some soundings and it has one helluva MAUL. 700-500 lapse rates are quite steep. We get maximized lift in there and snowfall rates could end up being something like 2''+ per hour for a bit somewhere.

That is a very funky HRRR run. Quite a bit going on with some funky warm layers and looks like some dry or drier pockets mixed in. Luckily its the HRRR in the extended range

Happy to hear all is well

Thinking a good 5-8'' of snow across Connecticut with about 3-5'' along the immediate shoreline. Going to put together a map later this afternoon after work stuff all done. The 5'' side though along the immediate shoreline may be too high though but we'll see after assessing everything in full after Euro.

I will say...I'm just glad it was nothing like 18z. I still don't think the NAM is worth a crap with this system until its mesoscale time but if it stayed coarse it would have to be a bit of a caution flag.

Hello CT

I hope the severe threads this summer can elicit more serious discussion

There are two things I am really curious about: 1) How cold temperatures can get tomorrow night 2) How much temperatures climb Saturday Should probably do an airmass trajectory on this, but looks like the airmass is advecting in from the central states. Guidance for last night within the mid-west was wayyy colder than what verified. Not sure this means anything but just a thought in my mind. It clouds very quickly and with not much mixing, temperatures may not rise all that much from whatever they fall to Friday night. Obviously along the immediate coast temps probably get well into the 30's but that should be a pretty shallow layer. Ultimately, I don't see a track north enough to warrant concerns for mixing or wet snow except for immediate shorelines

18z GFS bufkit for BDL. Still some solid lift into the DGZ. I switched snow ratio from cobb to max temp in profile just to smooth it out a bit. Otherwise it looks like my heartbreak watching this Bruins game

Definitely a nice hit on the Euro. Looks a bit progressive which could make some of the higher range potential difficult to obtain but who cares. Great hit for all