weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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I haven't seen a whiff like that since Brad Marchand's failed shoot out attempt a few years ago. -
Lift too...lift is extremely important as is snowgrowth. You can have all the QPF you want and favorable thermals, if lift and snow growth suck you're going to be disappointed.
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He may be counting the snow blowing off the roof
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euro definitely as wild as the gfs is but its still a pretty decent hit it looks like.
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I first came across that from you. It's such an amazing product/tool. Oh man...I know what you're talking about I think with the SDs. I might have that bookmark actually (though might be on my personal computer). It is possible that is no longer operational as well. If I can find it I'll drop it and see if that's what you're referring too.
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I would like to send you a bottle of wine
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Indeed, one of my favorite part about winter storms with great banding is seeing that product
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Unfortunately no. Sent a message to Walt. They're aware but it's a low priority fix right now but hopefully soon.
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Fairly unstable in the mlvls
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Yup that is certainly key for sure.
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12z GFS BUFKIT BDL!!!!!!! Oh my please verify...holy cow.
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One thing to keep in mind when using the 10:1 snow maps (which should never be used anyways) is snowfall ratios for the most part are going to be better than 10:1, especially farther inland and especially under the heaviest banding. I would think ratios could be as high as 15:1 to 18:1.
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The GFS was certainly fun and exciting but still going to exercise caution for now. Still holding off on making a snow map until 12z models tomorrow. We've seen this script before...we got to about a range we're in now and start seeing some impressive solutions (from multiple models) only for everything to taper some the following suite of model runs. I've been bitten big time in the past riding the pony while it was eating. I'll wait for it to chew, swallow, and maybe poop first.
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Contacted Walt...he and Bob are aware. Low priority right now but hoping for a fix soon.
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And feeding into temps which are like -6C to -7C. the dendrite production is going to be insane.
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Doesn't look like this page is in service anymore :sad: https://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/
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500 closes off too east of the Cape
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That is a major hit...wow. That 850 development is of pure beauty. Would probably see heavy banding develop north and then tug south as the low tightens. Congrats CT and points east.
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Looks like its setting up for some hefty banding
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I'd rather trust Chad Ryland to kick a game winning 66 yard FG (while blind folded) to win the Super Bowl than the NAM to sniff out this system.
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I think the one thing that will hold accumulation potential back a bit is the speed. This should be fairly progressive. Even if snow is lingering if we get a boost from the trailing shortwave, it's most likely going to be light snow which probably doesn't amount to much in terms of accumulation (maybe an inch or two). Overall though, the window for the heaviest snowfall rates is relatively short...maybe 2-3 hours (4 at most). Something to keep in mind when looking for the higher ceiling of totals.
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It would be kind of cool if you could see this product for something like 850 or 700 lows. Just based off the track of many of those SLP though I would think 850 would be very favorable for a hefty band to traverse almost everyone.
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I wouldn't call that a blip. That's been hinted at and something to absolutely watch for. This is exactly why as you get closer you analyze and assess forecast soundings instead of just rip and reading QPF/snow maps. This is exactly why I start looking at soundings 3-4 days out. They can provide hints and clues missed by just looking at maps.
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Wow hello
