weatherwiz

About to go on a little cruise just off of Fort Lauderdale! Despite the clouds and breeze and light rain, it’s warm and a bit humid! We take. Merry Christmas and happy holidays everyone!

What luck

Jeans and a light jacket on

Cold is pointless without snow. Especially these past few mornings. Down in the teens both nights. I was nervous back in the summer that I would miss a big snowstorm this week but that’s not going to happen. Looks like winter kicks off when I get back.

Just landed at PBI. 78F!!! Don’t be jelly anyone

It might be time for everyone to take a bit of a mental break and refrain from posting for a few times. Enjoy the weekend with friends/family and come back fresh. Yes December sucked and it's painful but there are no indications that continues through January (at least not yet anyways).

95/72 is my threshold for shorts.

hmmm I didn't think of this. Good point. I think I'll stick with jeans. It will certainly be warmer than it will be here, however, I asked myself...would I be wearing shorts here if it was in the 70's (even if it was a bit humid) the answer is...helllllllll no

Trying to figure if 1) I should pack shorts or jeans for Florida next week. 2) What to wear to the airport Saturday. I'm debating wearing shorts but it's a pain to take off your belt and then walk as your pants slowly start to drop. Thinking sweatpants but not sure I have any.

If this was Monopoly and we drew that as a chance card it would read, "Ride the Wave Train to snowier times. If you pass go, take your trolling ass out of here"

Was it 2008 or 2009 we had that clipper on NYE that ended up being an overperformer...didn't it come on the brink of a pattern change too. Maybe that can happen again this year.

This December is easily going to finish well above-average in the Northeast and across the country. The West will take a hit later this weekend and early next weekend a bit but I would have to think this will end up being the warmest December on record. These anomalies are only going to increase next week

Everything is going to plan and how several have envisioned things would progress. Nothing has been pushed back or delayed. Fantasy has bled into reality from all the wishcasting for a White Christmas.

This year to last year 2023 (through 12.21.23) 2022 (Through 12.21.22)

They're probably at a historic low I would have to think. Last year was one of their snowiest on records IIRC...in fact, they may not have fully melted last year's pack there was so much

snowpacks are for the Sierra's

We don't really need a full-fledged Arctic airmass in place either. I mean how any of our biggies have come with a super cold Arctic airmass in place? Sure they have happened but IMO, if we have a deep Arctic airmass in place we're likely looking at either a suppressed pattern or an inactive pattern.

maybe related to mixing? The GFS tends to get overzealous with mixing but that is an interesting observation, I did not notice that. what's also interesting too is I feel like it's been much harder to get anomalous daytime departures on the colder side. Remember back this spring or maybe early summer we had some pretty anomalous cold llvl airmasses overhead but we were still barely netting negative departures at the sfc.

probably about as high as the pressure over SE Canada

The GFS looks cold enough to me in the long range

I think the GFS is being a bit too aggressive with the warmth that far north but it's certainly possible that could happen.

People want to see blizzards on OP runs at D12...if there is nothing being shown it's just winter cancel

I think everything is progressing nearly on schedule. I know Ray and I shared a lot of the same thoughts in our winter outlooks how we would see pattern evolution moving through December into January and everything seems to be on par. Everything seems to be progressing how you'd expect for a typical EL Nino, especially a stronger EL Nino. While our luck certainly isn't the best with stronger EL Nino's, we have had success with stronger episodes. But you can see that we're moving towards the emergence of the Aleutian Low. It also appears we should head into the direction of developing blocking. Everything is happening slow, but things are changing.

eh that was poorly worded. I was just looking at the charts though, didn't look at pattern. I should have said that there is strong agreement that the NAO becomes less positive moving through the end of the month and after a bit of a PNA spike, the PNA looks to become less positive as well.

The first week of January could be quite intriguing with the NAO looking to tank and the PNA becoming more neutral. Ensembles seem in pretty good agreement in how the NAO/PNA evolve moving through the end of the month.