weatherwiz

I know there's been alot of posts with the "storm vs. no storm" but I don't really think that is the case. The GFS has always had something, its just a matter of where the baroclinic zone resides. There certainly will be a wave of low pressure which develops within the South which moves off the Southeast coast and then rides northeast along the zone. If that zone is further northwest, we increase the potential for snow. If it is further southeast then we decrease the chance. But I think there are other factors as well. This is now 3 winters in a row we've seen these significant Arctic blasts penetrate deep into the South with potential for some significant wintry precipitation within the South. At least from my experience the GFS has done handled these well, particularly with precipitation forming along it. The NAM seems to have a better handle. Not sure how much of an influence this has on things but the GFS also tends to get way too aggressive with the cold (at least MOS does). So it is possible this is one reason why the GFS seems to have a SE bias in these situations.

ptype maps are about as garbage as snow maps

The GFS seems clueless with this boundary

That 700-500 lapse rates is pretty absurd for around here. I've seen 7.5-8 om winter with these Arctic vorts but nearing 9...wow

yes

18z NAM bufkit. Pretty good signal for gusts 55-60 with the squalls.

18z GFS Bufkit at BDL (this is a bit overdone). I'll post the NAM in a follow up post (which may be a bit underdone) but snow squall warnings tomorrow?

I was just suggesting a new thread to keep the events separate, especially with how quickly threads grow. I don't think a significant hit is likely Tuesday, but I would not rule out some sort of accumulating snow event whether that be 1-2'' or 3-4''.

I would go ahead and make a new thread IMO.

This jet streak is absolutely wild

For sure, been super busy the past few days but looking at this now. It's definitely impressive looking. NAM even spitting out a few hundred J of SBCape. Going to do a blog post. It's like May in January Kevin is right too with the wind potential. Those llvl lapse rates are wild so mixing winds down won't be an issue.

I wouldn't be so quick to totally write the NAM off just yet. One major difference between the NAM/GFS is where the placement of the Arctic front and where the baroclinic zone resides. Models can really struggle with this aspect. If you look at the NAM (the Euro is somewhat closer to the NAM than GFS I think) where the baroclinic zone is positioned, combined with the dynamics would yield potential for cyclogenesis and low pressure to move north and east off the coast. I know there are some models that are amped, but I think those models are a bit overdone. I don't see much in the way of room for this to become amped, however, Tuesday into Wednesday could be a bit interesting as that second shortwave which moves through looks to be more amped and have room to be more amped. One of the keys with these Arctic boundaries is where the barolcinic zone resides which models can really struggle with. There is even differences with the swath of wintry precipitation in the South but if a sfc low can spawn more quickly that is something to watch. Ultimately, the window is very small for a bigger event, but region wide light snows are certainly on the table.

High soil moisture = higher dews for May?

Big fail on the wind on my part. Always like to play conservative but did not do that this time. I felt pretty good we would 1) See a forced line of convection 2) That would be sufficient to mix winds down Anyways, snow pack here wiped down but still looks like 3'' maybe 4'' left. And now there is fog developing

Looks like the core of the line is along coastal CT

oh shit...I meant to say 12-3 I was comparing line vs. HRRR and I totally slipped on the time change (paying more attention to hockey lol)

Seeing temps 55-58F across NJ and far southeast PA...wonder if that gets into CT/RI at all. I've noticed the HRRR has slightly ticked up a bit in temps overnight...popping more 54-55 vs. 51-53.

1-4 AM (earliest southwest CT and then moving northeast through the early overnight). there may actually be two separate lines...one forming now and then something that goes across southeast MA late overnight.

I see our low topped, force line developing

hmm my power just flickered 1st period isn't even over yet...crap

What would fish show up as on the CC department?

I hope my power waits to go out until after this Bruins game.

I really think it is a distinct possibility we see widespread gusts 50-60 mph and some gusts 60-65 overnight with the line moving northeast. The mesos are really consistent in a fine line moving northeast across much of CT and points northeast. If we can get temperatures to spike in the lower 50’s that will really help I think. Latest HRRR even has some 54-55…that would certainly be sufficient. It is a very small window these gusts occur but it would produce damage and power outages.

All we have to do is mix down like 60% to equate

That does provide a good visual as to the differences between the two events. But I also wonder if we're kind of comparing apples-to-oranges here. Ultimately, there are several ways we can get big wind events to verify around here. While this may not be similar to 12/18 that doesn't necessarily mean a similar impact can't happen. Not using this as a means to justify the wind potential, but sometimes a signal is missed when the focus turns to comparing to a previous event. But essentially, for tonight its virtually convection or bust and how robust that convection can be.