weatherwiz

The NAM has trended significantly robust with the convective tomorrow. Going to be interesting to see what impact that has, does it rob moisture? Does it influence main low/secondary development? This is going to be a heck of an evolution to watch

30 days Crazy how we're within a month until severe weather season and in 2 weeks the end of the GFS run will peak into May. IT'S COMING!!!

The increase in severe weather potential and quite a bit northward shift in severe weather potential for tomorrow is wrecking some havoc. This could be a sign for a stronger primary into western Michigan at least as that would favor the warm front lifting this far north to warrant these severe probs. It will be fun later today, tonight, and tomorrow to watch in real time how the convection is influencing the upper levels

I hardly ever look at the Canadian but this would be pretty sweet if that verified. That would be a nuking for some

There is a big of divergence between the models with this convection in the Ohio Valley. The NAM/GFS shifted north with where the bulk of the convection occurs while the HRRR is further south. This is why I think its important to closely assess where the warm front ends up today because that's where the convection will be focused. South of the warm front there may be capping issues. The NAM warm tongue would make sense if the convective solution pans out as advertised. There isn't a whole lot going on right now which could help with a farther north warm front into the Ohio Valley.

Thinking the GFS is going to be damn close to a NAM like evolution with strong primary into the Great Lakes and rapid H7 development/strengthening well west.

I would think we will have an idea of how valid the NAM will be later this afternoon or early this evening.

The NAM essentially looks like WAA precip Tuesday night/Wednesday and then precipitation quickly shuts off due to occlusion and then dry slot as H7 develops rapidly to our west.

The NAM is quite unstable in the mid-levels. Some of the most robust elevated instability I recall seeing around these parts with wintry precipitation potential. Reminds me a bit of some of those setups you see in the Great Plains where they get thunder sleet/freezing rain.

I still say we won't have a better idea of what to expect until we see how this system evolves moving through the Great Lakes today/tomorrow. How far north the warm front really gets will significantly influence convective evolution and the entire system in general.

It's just all about expectations. Of course though since everyone loves to just stroll right to the snowfall maps expectations are already lost but if you live in northern New England and/or have elevation well, climatologically you stand the best chance for some significant snowfall accumulations. We know this is going to be an anomalous evolution for this time of year and with that we should anticipate or expect there will be at least some sort of anomalous outcome. But what does that mean, well that's what we figure out over these next few days. I mean me in Springfield, it would be foolish to expect or anticipate 12'' of snow, but is it plausible to think I have a shot for say 2-4'' or 4-6'', absolutely and that's the anomalous aspect. I think mostly everyone will see frozen precipitation (except maybe immediate coastal Plain) but it's just a matter of how impactful.

I don't think we are going to have a great idea on how this will unfold until probably Tuesday evening. With multiple rounds of convection these next few days within the Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley that is surely going to greatly impact many of the key features, including the primary. With the degree of convection which seems likely along the warm front these next few days (including today) this may help shunt the warm front south a bit. It is also possible the primary low ends up being farther south and not thrown into Michigan like some guidance is showing. I think the GFS may be too far north partly because it seems to be somewhat too aggressive with how far north into the mid country the warm front lifts and ultimately it is pegging a northerly displaced MCS and subsequently, farther north with the primary.

As a Bruins fan I don't want to hear the word overtime

ahhh good call. I wanted to mention the Whites in there as well.

I am just in awe of the whole 500mb evolution. But while the 500 evolution is a beauty, how the surface evolves is going to be a giant PITA to figure out I think. With how things continue to look though I would not be surprised to see the highest totals in the 3 foot range and this would be achieved in favored upslope areas along the Greens and Berks.

yeah they may certainly help propel us to some more consistent warmth...at least for a time anyways. I'm sure we're still going to have to deal with some crappy periods.

That is a pretty damn near textbook evolution of the 500mb pattern and how H5 closes off and where it tracks. What may bode well too is there isn't a cluster cluck of shortwave mess. There's plenty of shortwave energy around but only a few distinct major pieces. If you're outside of the far interior and don't have elevation, dynamics are going to be critical but there is plenty of cold air available not far away.

The whole evolution of this is an absolute beauty. With how anomalous the pattern and evolution is you can't just run to climo. Certainly the favor is going to be elevation/interior but it is cold in the low-levels. We'll see how this continues to evolve over the next few days. Lots of convection expected too within the warm sector so this may have a significant influence on exactly how the key features evolve.

I'm with you. I don't want to be tracking snow right now. I just want warmer/nicer weather. That tease we had earlier in the month propelled my brain right to warmer weather. If we didn't have that I may be more inclined to hope this could turn into a crushing...even for me

Because in January or February this is a crushing for everyone...even down to the coast. Early April...probably going to be interior/elevation

Why can't we get this in January or February????

Just looked at the Euro for second half of next week and holy shit I mean that is a hell of a 500 anomaly going on.

I see what you're saying, this makes sense. Can't disagree with how this is laid out.

That is the beauty of science. Science doesn't care about anyone's feelings or opinions. Science doesn't care if something upsets you, science doesn't care if something bother's you, and science doesn't care about your backyard.

This is a great post. This illustrates beautifully that the terms hot and cold are subjective. I mean what is truly considered hot and what is considered cold? You could ask 100 different people to define each and you'll probably get 90 different answers. We actually used to debate this in some of my classes. When is it appropriate to use hot and cold? One person may think 87 is hot...one may think 87 is warm. So who is correct? Well this is why it's important to understand what climo is and what the records are. If the average high for the day is 77 and the high is 87...you can certainly make an argument it is hot. But that doesn't necessarily mean it is hot. It's certainly well above-average and that isn't debatable. For colder season, some people may think 30 is cold, while you have some people who can walk around in shorts. So, is it cold? is it not? If the average high is 21 well 30 certainly isn't as "cold" relative but that doesn't mean it's not cold. If the average high is 45...well you can make an argument 30 is cold but that doesn't mean it's cold. I didn't even notice the year I want to say that pic was 2013 or 2012