weatherwiz

This is a great post. This illustrates beautifully that the terms hot and cold are subjective. I mean what is truly considered hot and what is considered cold? You could ask 100 different people to define each and you'll probably get 90 different answers. We actually used to debate this in some of my classes. When is it appropriate to use hot and cold? One person may think 87 is hot...one may think 87 is warm. So who is correct? Well this is why it's important to understand what climo is and what the records are. If the average high for the day is 77 and the high is 87...you can certainly make an argument it is hot. But that doesn't necessarily mean it is hot. It's certainly well above-average and that isn't debatable. For colder season, some people may think 30 is cold, while you have some people who can walk around in shorts. So, is it cold? is it not? If the average high is 21 well 30 certainly isn't as "cold" relative but that doesn't mean it's not cold. If the average high is 45...well you can make an argument 30 is cold but that doesn't mean it's cold. I didn't even notice the year I want to say that pic was 2013 or 2012

Gotcha...I was just rip and reading the climo given on the extended MOS/NBM I don't know why I still do that...it's asking for failure, case in point here.

Good times...great memories. I hope Barry is doing well.

Sensible weather matters to the individual but I'm talking about this more from a data standpoint/historical perspective. That's not true at all, people will remember both. Through conversations with many people I've heard them recall years or summers which had sweltering heat. People are going to remember what was most impactful to them or what was engraved in their brain by media. Instances of cold and/or alot of snow or periods of high heat/humidity are phenomena which will sit in people's minds.

the lows this morning were probably pretty close to average, maybe even a few ticks above but even still, today is probably a good several degrees below average across many areas. Average high for BDL is around 50 and they're at 44. Average high for BTV is 44 and they at 35.

How one perceives sensible weather is also irrelevant. Data is just that...it is data and doesn't account for personal opinion or feeling. If this March at station x turns out to be +15 for the month and that same station was +15 in 2012, well then this month was just anomalous at that location, regardless of how the +15 resulted. Today is below-average across the region, however, when looking at it from a sensible approach, some people may find today rather decent, especially with the stronger sun angle. Some people may find today pretty lousy with the chilly wind and colder feel in the shade. But regardless of what one thinks, it doesn't change the fact that today is below-average for where we should be.

People will probably remember years where we had some extreme summer heat (such as 1995) but nobody is going to remember we had a stretch of 70-80+ days in March a decade ago.

I was looking at that. The best pattern configuration they've seen all season probably.

I doubt anyone except us remember March 2012. If you were to ask random people on the street what they thought of the weather in March 2012 they'd be like, "how the hell do I know". Unless you happened to question someone who is somewhat in touch with this stuff.

Backyard neighbor was out mowing his lawn the other day. I've noticed patches of newer grass popping up as well. Tree in the front yard and neighbors house next door also have buds. In fact, I noticed buds on one of the trees like 2-3 weeks ago.

Yeah don't see TT values spike that high around these parts very often. Once you start approaching 60 that's a pretty strong signal for thunder/lightning. Generally, we're lucky to see TT's get into the 52-55 range.

Down to 43 days!!! We're getting there. This time next month the GFS will be getting past May 1

wow that's not too shabby. Sometimes these little setups get overlooked, especially this time of year.

Tomorrow looks interesting with some convective snow squalls and showers with graupel. I could see a quick 2'' in the Berks and southern Greens.

Yeah right some mouse running across must have tripped a conversion

Looks like a bit of a heat burst at SWF overnight

Flying all the way to the Stanley Cup playoffs?

Tropics are my least knowledgeable area so I'm not entirely sure what to expect. I mean naturally, if we're progressing towards La Nina you would expect an above-average season. While I don't think the warm waters factors into that aspect, the already well above-average waters are concerning in that should storms develop, they will have alot of fuel available. Then of course we'll have to see the prospects for landfalling storms.

Let's just agree that the next few months are going to suck more than not. We'll get some beautiful days mixed in which tells us those days on a more consistent basis are approaching but we all know how springs work around here: 1. We could have a two week stretch of widespread 60's/70's within the region mid-month, higher elevations and northern New England will still have some snow threats well through April. We could get a stretch of 70's/80's and they still will. 2. We are going to have some brutal periods of chilly temperatures, stiff northeast breezes, clouds, showers, heavier rain. 3. We'll have some days with wild weather differences within the region. This will be characterized by periods where we get over the top warmth and NNE is dabbing 70's and lower 80's while SNE is shocked in with some marine crap. 4. We'll have days when portions of SNE are into the 60's and 70's while other parts are backdoored and dealing with 40's and low clouds/drizzle. We are about to get a mixture of everything through the next 7-8 weeks.

Gotta love the differences between MAV/MET guidance at BDL/BOS tomorrow BOS for example

don't see much in the way of elevated instability right now

That should be printed out and added into the chapter of textbooks which focuses on tornadoes.

Going to be some impressive rainfall totals for sure. Not sure if we see any thunder/lightning but there's a good amount of MUCAPE being modeled with steep mid-level lapse rates. If anything, there will be convective elements locally enhancing rainfall rates. Some of the rates are going to be pretty wild.

What a BEAUTIFULLLLLLLLLL day. Spent a few hours outside doing some outside cleanup including picking up months worth of dog poop. Then spent like 90 minutes cleaning dog poop off my shoes then went shopping. Today was much needed. Can't wait for this to become more consistent but with 70's and then eventually 80's and 90's with high humidity.

The evolution of everything for this upcoming week has been a shit show on guidance (and not talking just about our area).