weatherwiz

so do the Mets, but doesn't mean they'll deliver

What I've learned through my mass making of composites the past few years is the analog approach just isn't going to work anymore. The more and more I looked into things, the clearer it became there was a tremendous shift in the influences of ENSO on the global regime. So I've decided to start from scratch with composites. It's also become clear the traditional ONI may not be the best method for defining ENSO anymore, the RONI seems to be a better fit, however, I am also closely beginning to look into the SOI and then want to look into the MEI. I had previous constructed composites and breaking down ENSO into strength based on the ENS-ONI and ONI then I had started to incorporate the RONI, however, it started to become clear that oceanic aspect alone may not be enough to define strength (thus the importance of SOI/MEI).

Sun finally breaking through the clouds here

I wonder if there could be a few stray snow showers across the high terrain of upstate New York Sunday or even Green Mtns. That's a pretty hefty shortwave and llvl cold.

This https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=GLOB&base_time=202405010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202406010000

Certainly going to have to watch the Gulf this week. If anything were to develop it would probably only have a small window for strengthening but regardless of development there could be some impressive rainfall totals along the Gulf Coast this week.

Can't rule out some showers/storms Monday (probably north though) but yup a big snooze fest

lmao the PV is typically weak this time of year ("weaker" than average doesn't really mean anything).

we all may

Could see a nice forced low-topped line of convection late Saturday afternoon

If the Fall severe weather season is big in the Plains we may have to start naming MCVs to meet the quota.

Looks like our 6 months of Fall will be setting in nicely.

All basically 10-20% chance of development in the next week. Trying so hard to pump up the numbers

PRefer not to think about that

Might be getting close to that if it happened again.

Wanted to post this last night but forgot. I was outside with the dog at like 9:30 last night and it was CHILLY. There is nothing fun or refreshing about temperatures in the 40's or 50's. If you're going for a walk or doing some activity, sure its not terrible but if you're just looking to sit and relax...NOPE that doesn't work, it's too cold. Nothing enjoyable about that at all. If its in the 60's or 70's at night with some humidity...that is perfect, you can just sit there and relax and feel comfortable. Also, last night was the second time in a span of like 3 weeks there was a spider crawling on me in bed. A few weeks back I was laying in bed scrolling on my phone and a spider crawled across the screen, inches from my face. I didn't have my glasses on so I was unsure if it was a part of the video I was watching but I quickly jolted up and the spider was on the sheets. Last night, I'm scrolling on my phone and I see something crawling towards me on the blankets and it was ANOTER spider. I beat it with the blanket and my girlfriend was able to dispose of it.

I don't think I am going to get to a winter outlook this year (never even got to a review of mine from last year lol). Anyways, I have been going about composites and ENSO breakdowns in a totally different manner. I was doing something with La Nina...and since I go back to 1900 and the climate division maps only allow up to 30 inputs, obviously I can't input every event. So I just did one set from 1900-1950 and the other from 1951-present. But its all based off of the climatological period. For instance, if you change the climo period for the second map... I don't know what the point of this post was but was just doing something and the result made me go urghhh

Good point...also I often wonder if the +departures off the coast have been a culprit in shifting the baroclinic zone west...i.e. a contributor to our slew of depressing cutters.

I wish more discussion would take off with your HC posts. I find them extremely interesting and I think often times there is a tendency to forget the basics. The science and our understanding of the science has become so complex and often times we get caught up in these complexities instead of reverting to the basics. For example, with the HC or GWO, we have a damn good understanding of how these cells work and how these cells influence the weather. But we get too caught up in the modeling...always looking for the models to show "the change". This is especially true during the winter when we're all looking at D10 EPS and see the "Change". But instead of looking at models for the change, why not just assess how these cells are behaving in the present and short-term. These clues then can probably be used to have an idea of how "correct" the models are. just a thought that goes through my head now and then

There is something about your HC posts that just send tingles down my body.

This will hopefully be a huge learning curve and I'm sure the studies which will come out from this season should be a huge boost to tropical forecasting in the future. It will be curious to see if any of these signals being discussed now were evident or missed during pre-season analyses.

Going outside in like an hour to stain some garage siding. Kind of sucks losing so much daylight now...doesn't leave much time after the work day to do much outside. Not a huge job to do but want to get done while the weather is nice.

It is super difficult to get prolific/historic seasons...in any regards. Severe, winter, tropical. It is exceedingly difficult to get the dominos to fall perfectly. There probably is a reason for this too which probably can be proved via advanced atmospheric physics and all starting with the balancing equations. The atmosphere is always trying to be in balance which of course is why we have weather. If you have parameters, variables, etc. which are extremely favorable for one thing to happen, there are going to be a set of parameters, variables to try and balance, or cancel those out. Its when all these parameters are extremely volatile do we see extreme weather occur.

I thought your explanations were great and you hit the nail on the head, there more than likely are multiple factors at play. I'm sure the low shear/historically high SST's/OHC going into the season raised alot of concern, however, as you know these two factors don't necessarily dictate whether a season will be active/inactive. These are more fuel...they are energy. Like CAPE and convection, 5000 J of CAPE doesn't mean you will see thunderstorms. You need conditions and factors which favor tropical waves/disturbances and you highlighted very well why they have been absent.

Great stuff!