weatherwiz

Trying to get back into the swing of things but I do think the first half of February is more likely to be cooked than not...not just locally, but across the country as well. We may favor sfc high pressure systems (and large ones) being a fixture. But this is just the first half of February. I could see the pattern becoming more active during the second half of the month. Some signals we could see a split pattern evolve. But one worry is we are starting to hedge towards the wrong side of climo and if Canada becomes flooded with milder air it may be difficult to re-load Arctic air into Canada. We can certainly still win in this, but it becomes more difficult because you just need more to go right. Maybe we ca re-load some blocking later into the month or early March. I am a bit bummed how things have turned out and bummed about the prospects for February. After about mid-March I will be ready for spring/summer.

These flakes are massive. Ground all coated up. Coming down quite heavy too.

Thank you everyone. The support I've gotten here and all over has been incredible and such a wonderful help. It's great to be surrounded by so many wonderful people.

Thanks everyone, it means alot.

What a horrific week. My mom passed away early Tuesday morning (though there is some solace in that it was in her sleep...it was getting to the point where she was starting to get uncomfortable with not being able to breathe) and then not even 24 hours later, the step-mom to my older siblings and who was essentially like a second mom to my and my two younger siblings passed away too.

Was just looking at some soundings at the GFS. Certainly nothing which would scream warmth...unless you live at H85

This. Those touting that this was going to be a milder winter with less snow just because of a strong EL Nino can put the tout in reverse. There was a lot going into this EL Nino which signaled this was not going to be a typical strong EL Nino (regardless of whatever the ONI said) and alot indicating this EL Nino may behave strangely. I've been super busy but in the upcoming days I want to look at where we stand thus far in terms of averaged H5 anomalies and compare to your "typical" EL Nino. I am curious to see if how things stand now fit the mold of how EL Nino events seemed to have evolved over the past few decades.

Yup...and with that I am not giving up on February. Let the trolls do whatever they want to do. But the potential is there and that's all we can roll with. If signs were pointing to big torch and massive ridge then I'd give up but that is not the case. Sure we'll see that but it will be temporary.

It's a situation like this though which really drives me further. TBH, I feel like I would have learned much more from this winter being totally wrong versus being more right than wrong.

I am very disappointed in this winter, or at least this month. I am very happy I got 10.5'' in that storm a few weeks back and earlier this week got like 3-4'' and to fall during the day when I can just work at my desk and watch it snowing outside. Now February could deliver, but I for sure thought we would have been smacked this month. While I was aggressive in my winter thinking, it was certainly in the back of my mind it may not work out that way. What's been the more frustrating aspect though is the trolls who just come in here now and then and waste 2 of their 5 posts claiming to be the next Messiah or whoever and said they knew how this winter would be because of the EL Nino strength. That is hog wash bullshit. I've said this before, but when it comes to long-range or seasonal forecasting and getting into specifics such as seasonal snowfall or understanding what patterns will deliver and when, we're lacking something to help with this understanding. When it comes to winter storms in the Northeast, we have the Northeast Snowstorms books which is the meteorology version of the Bible. These books are absolutely incredible. When it comes to severe weather/tornadoes we have Significant Tornadoes book and studies on major outbreaks. Essentially we have an uncanny amount of information on events and patterns which produced. I know the Northeast Snowstorms volumes go into some of the near hits and misses, but IMO we really are lacking in this department. I really wish we had the ability to create some database on this. We all know and understand ridge in west and trough in east is generally good for winter lovers in the Northeast. But this doesn't always work out and what we don't know is the probability. There has been work done by various forum members over the years breaking down snowfall statistics and typing into ENSO phase, ENSO structure, and even incorporating NAO, AO, PDO, etc. None of the correlations ever seemed strikingly high though. One thing I want to do soon is go back and revisit December/January and create daily composites and watch how everything unfolded day-to-day. Part of what makes things worse too is how we are assessing and looking for storm threats. I remember back when I first joined the boards and even through the early 2010's...there would be alot of focus on upper-levels and pattern evolution. Now that still happens and some do try to provide that insight but it gets drowned out. Now its just OP SLP/QPF maps 300+ hours out being used as a baseline to justify there is a storm potential or just claiming an upcoming stretch has "potential" because the snowfall maps for a period show 40''.

Thank you! It's certainly not easy at all. It's one of, if not probably the worst part of life (at least on an individual level). Maybe in the grand scheme of things there are worse but this definitely sucks.

Thank you! Unfortunately, this is not something she will recover from so it’s the stage of just being comfortable. Not really sure. It smelled like plastic burning or something even worse.

Well this was scary. I’m visiting my mom in the hospital and all of a sudden I smell something burning so I’m checking around the room and go into the hall. Then I turn back into the room and smoke started pouring out from the ceiling vent. Thank God I was there…it was pretty quiet on the floor. She’s on oxygen too which could have been extremely bad.

We should get another re-load of the pattern moving into February. We'll certainly still have some wintry threats though through the end of the month. They'd all probably be similar to what we're looking at for next Monday/Tuesday where we may need to rely on high pressure to the north to reinforce and lock in cold. While the upper pattern looks like crap, if we can keep moving sfc highs southeast across Canada we'll have some shots.

I second this.

Been super busy with alot going on but it's great to see this lining up to the thoughts some had. It's also great to see the GFS coming around to those thoughts as well. I had a feeling the GFS was just not handling this well the other day. Certainly may not be a "big storm" but its something.

Holy shit that's awesome

I don't think using snow maps is a viable way of looking for improvements over run-to-run

These are essentially like summer thunderstorms with more powerful dynamics and less instability. Ultimately, some towns get smoked and other don’t. Some get light stuff and some see nothing at all.

Actually I didn't even see that stuff down in NJ (busy with some other stuff) but was looking more at the ingredients. Anyways, that stuff in NJ should nail CT too. Going to be a region wide squall line of snow and strong winds. Snowacho?

sorry for the delay Overall, the line of snow squalls will probably be north of CT but would still expect scattered snow squalls to move across the state.

yes

Mesos also developing around 100 J/KG of SBCAPE through the day as the mid-level lapse rates steepen. If you close your eyes it almost feels like May tracking thunderstorms

Here is a great tie into what Will mentioned in his opening post with positive voriticty advection and a response at the sfc with the kink in the isobars. You can see it occurring in real time now.

Yeah I think it will eventually tune into a scenario where it paints us with widespread at least light snows and accumulating. Still can't rule out some low-end advisory at least somewhere in the region.