weatherwiz

This kinds of goes back to the discussion on modeling a few days ago, but these past 3-4 years have been awfully difficult. There have been so many times models seem locked in and there is confidence aided in ensemble support 2-3 days out and off go the headlines...but we start getting inside 30-36 hours and all of a sudden there is a back off. This has happened with multiple winter weather threats and setups similar to this.

why can't A + B = D? 1 + 1 = 2. Those are constants A, B, C, D, etc. are all variables and be assigned any value. If A = 2 and B =5 and C =12 A + B does not = C

January and February…into some of March that’s when our snow is. All this crap about December snow and “white Christmas”…is just that, it’s crap. It’s just mentality deranged from childhood fairytale stories of Santa recruiting Rudolph to guide the sleigh through snow and fog.

Certainly going to be at least some poor drainage flooding concerns. In terms of the wind, this seems to be trending less impressive everywhere. Backside snow...there is going to be some snow (ski country should still see decent snows) but if you look at the warnings...I think some of these are way overblown.

Wind....ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Backside Snow.....Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I wonder if I could myself on ignore

Snow, snow go away cone again when the cold can stay

I believe that cell did go through the area. So sorry to hear that, I hope everyone is alright. I saw a video on X...not sure if if it was that tornado but it was a pretty large tornado tearing through a neighborhood.

agreed, there and east coastal Maine

3km with a pretty decent squall line moving across far eastern MA and the Cape late Monday morning/early afternoon. That would produce some serious wind gusts

My office room window at home faces East and it sucks this time of year because it starts getting dark by like 3 PM with the sun towards the other end of the house. Glad we finally start ticking later (Albeit slowly) with sunsets in the next few days but still like another 4-5 weeks of the sun rising later...yuck

A nice TDS in Tennessee. Forgot what severe weather looks like its been so dead

I read this...then look at the time. DEPRESSING

How's the NBM performance with temperatures at PWM compared to MET/MAV? I've noticed many times the NBM is on the lower side (especially with high temperatures). I did recently see you can now check NBM performance on Iowa State which will be fun to dig into.

Very fair

They seem to do an excellent job in the mountains out West but that's about it

As far as my understanding, the snow maps just take QPF falling as snow and then multiply it by a calculated ratio and that's it. I could be very wrong on this, but I've always assumed they don't really factor in much else. While I do think the snow maps can be very useful to aid in pinpointing where the gradient between rain/snow will be, oropgraphic influences, and what max totals may be, I don't think they provide any other value. As we know, during an event snowfall ratios are not constant and there are many factors which influence ratios; (snowgrowth, lift, moisture) and I don't believe the algorithms behind these maps incorporate these.

Moreso with the totals. Some of the totals being spit out seem way too high. For ski country it's probably a different story though...they may get it good which is fantastic news for them. There doesn't seem to be an issue with the CAA in the llvls but the colder temperatures at the surface really look to lag. Where rates are intense that will offset this a bit but outside of ski country it could really have trouble sticking in many places.

I am going to screen shot some model snowfall maps from the past few days and then compare them to what actually occurs. I bet the result will be laughable.

I am still a bit torn on the system as a whole. At least to me, when it comes to the backend snow aspect and how significant that is, alot is going to depend on whether one of these waves intensifies like guidance has been showing. The consistency has certainly been there, but we've seen similar situations before where inside 36 hours models back off. How far inland the strong wind potential is will be tied into where the lows track. If they're tracking say right up the CT River the best LLJ and strongest winds are going to be well off to the East. I think think for majority of inland the best winds are going to be with the CAA Monday.

With the way things have been evolving (which I am certainly going to be wrong on with thinking the backend snow was overdone) there is probably a better chance of minor accumulations to the CT River in CT than there is strong winds (gusts 40-50+) within CT (outside of SE CT).

There will be accidents everywhere...probably flooding to contend with too. Parts of 95 in CT and the Merritt will be a hell hole.

That is going to be a pretty wild Monday morning across eastern coastal Maine. Wouldn't be surprised if there are some 75-80 mph wind gusts. NAM has a decent amount of elevated CAPE too so if there is any convection the potential for these gusts increases quite a bit. But given the instability is elevated that doesn't necessarily guarantee the winds would be tapped into and drawn down.

AIT

what do you average in November?