weatherwiz

Great post, well said. Couldn't agree more. This is a pretty darn good way to state things. And what I have bolded irks me too. It's not that models "change". I mean when you think of it, the solution the model is spitting out is the product of how the pattern is evolving (time step derivatives, leap frog equation...I forget what that was called. Did that in mesoanalysis. I remember one Thanksgiving morning tackling that homework assignment). So feasibly, the solution the model is spitting out is correct...assuming the evolution occurs that way. Ultimately though, I think it just comes down to expectations and we let emptions get in the way and then all hell breaks loose.

I've often wondered if going to coarser and finer resolutions has had some sort of negative feedback...but maybe the positives outweigh the negatives.

Yeah I agree with this. Scores or whatever may say differently but there seems to have been much more uncertainty within 3-4 days in not only how the mid/upper levels will evolve but with the overall look and from model-to-model and run-to-run.

I wish there was more dedication to model physics/background in school (maybe that's more of a grad level thing or maybe other schools do this). Understanding models is more than just being able to interpret the output. That is a small, tiny fraction of it. Ultimately though, forecasting has gotten more lazy. When I first joined the boards in the mid 2000's there was much more in-depth analysis and assessments of patterns, synoptics, etc. When you go around and read accounts of how meteorologists used to forecast back in the day and the techniques used...it all seemed very thorough. Now when there is a severe weather threat in the Plains, everyone runs to supercell composite charts and significant tornado probs, anytime there is a winter weather threat, it's running to the 10:1 maps and using 10:1 maps for snow/sleet, even though it gets stated 8 million times why you can't do that, or running to the Kucheria snow maps because it paints out more snow than the 10:1. The integration and explosion of social media and how irresponsibly alot of this information gets tossed out makes it seem like models are worse but they really aren't.

Starting to really like the signals we're seeing regarding the PNA and PAC in general moving forward. There has been a consistent trend towards getting a more favorable pattern to unload some good cold into Canada. This is something we've lacked big time the last few years. Regardless of what happens with these waves this week or any subsequent "winter" threat over the next 2-3 weeks...we're making subtle trends towards more favorable times ahead.

Yeah it's basically this...just be courteous of those around you if you are sick. This dude was just walking around the office coughing and sneezing, and probably touching stuff...then comes within super close contact. If you're sick, just be respectful of those around you.

It's probably going to be quite difficult to determine how likely such a scenario is until we have a clearer picture of how 12/4 unfolds. The differences between the GFS/Euro are still pretty striking. Euro really cranks this up with a closed, but large H5 with a pretty intense jet streak at the base...also has double-barrel low. GFS is just a weak mangled mess. Euro's consistency though is a bit noteworthy.

I hope the GFS is in the boat of setting the stage for wave #2 (or whatever number you want to call it).

Tuesday was really rough. It was a drag to get through the work day. My boss said if I needed to sign off early I could. I made it to 4 PM, slept for a few hours, watched a movie, then crashed. The fatigue was very bad as were the chills along with lack of taste. I felt much better yesterday, but a second wave hit me last night. Feeling worse today than yesterday. This is very bizarre but I test positive for covid and my girlfriend tested negative. So she set an appointment with CVS and they tested for flu...also negative. She is very nervous because the last time I got sick (which was also covid) 2 years ago, she got sick too...tested negative for covid/flu and whatever she had set off all the health issues she has now. Yup. I used to be one of those people. Would still do everything normally, go to work, out, etc. It's a much different time now. I am 99% certain I got it from work. I go into the office Tuesday/Thursday and there is only one other person that sits anywhere near me (I have like my own little corner). He sits on the other side of the wall. He was sick walking around the office for two weeks. Last Tuesday, he comes into my area like 2 feet in front of me and talks to me. I went to Wolf Pack/Springfield Friday then went to Bruins/Rangers Saturday afternoon then Wolf Pack Saturday night. I started feeling sick Sunday night. I don't think I would have gotten sick that quick if I was exposed Friday/Saturday. My girlfriend also started feeling sick the same night. My boss asked if I was around anyone sick and I said yeah...and I told him that's why I said I was working remote this past Tuesday. I'm not going to risk getting anyone sick for the holiday's. He agreed with that...if you're sick and have the ability to work from home...take it. One person sick all of a sudden can get 10-20 people sick.

Aww crap my result lit up like a Christmas Tree lol…as soon as I put the swab in the tester both lines lit up right away.

I am Covid positive so I guess I am out I was so looking forward to this.

Alot of similarities, but also some striking differences between the euro and gfs at 120 hr.

The type of setup where we may not have a great idea until just 2-3 days out. This is definitely a setup where you want to pay close attention to the upper-levels and not just focus on MSLP charts.

Agreed, was just thinking that to myself. Use that first system to sort of lay the framework for the second system.

I bet the GEFS will have some pretty decent members for that period. It's really not a terrible look just quite chaotic.

Yeah I wouldn't. Any systems we get are going to be juiced up. Get a few nice coastals bombing as it tracks over 40/70 and some smaller 2-3'' events mixed in.

I'm hoping to come out of December with 30''

Had something roll through overnight or earlier this morning. Some white in the grass. Almost looks graupel like.

agreed 1000%

I'll send a video of me swabbing my nose and the results of the test

Getting one delivered for free from the USPS! Coming tomorrow.

So going to have to see. Started to feel pretty sick as the day went on and had some food and couldn’t really taste it so scheduled a covid test for Wednesday

Great post, I don't have much knowledge with the MJO and MJO forecasting, but your thoughts are similar to what I've gathered on the board over boards these years.

This is probably the only thing that has me nervous about getting a more favorable pattern so soon. Anytime it comes down to differences within the tropical pacific (i.e. MJO) it's very difficult to merit a high level of confidence given how models are notorious for not handling tropical convection/MJO progression very well in the medium+ range. Not a knock on models, it's just that aspect is awfully difficult to resolve.

Gorham is probably a more attractive name then "Hermit Lake".