weatherwiz

Watch the chasing convection verify. We laugh every time we see that pop up but it seems to have screwed us on several occasions

MCD Time! Mesoscale Discussion 0009 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CST Sat Jan 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 070135Z - 070730Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will slowly increase in coverage across portions of southern New England this evening. Snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are possible within the heaviest band late this evening into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis showed a broad area of stratiform precipitation ongoing across parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. Associated with an approaching coastal low, periodic moderate to heavy snow/rain has been observed within this precipitation over the last several hours. Slow northeastward progression of the heaviest precip has been noted with the primary east-west oriented band stretching from east-central PA to Long Island Sound. Driven by strong low-level warm advection ahead of the deepening coastal low, moderate to heavy snow should slowly increase in coverage over portions of southern New England late this evening and into the overnight hours. Rates between 1 to 2 in/hour are possible within the primary band, though there remains some uncertainty on how quickly the heaviest snow will lift northward. Light snow has already been reported across parts of RI, MA and CT but, regional model soundings and observed ceilings above 4k feet suggest some low-level dry air remains in place. Inland moisture advection and the approach of the surface low should slowly cool and moisten the low-level thermodynamic profile sufficiently for higher snow rates after 03z. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will likely continue into the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2024

SNOW HAS STARTED!!!! LEt's go!!!

Getting inpatient here waiting...

Temps may jump up a few degrees as the low strengthens and the winds pick up a bit, especially if things track on the northern side of some guidance.

yeah it's pretty wild to see these differences. Kind of inclined to side with the mesos at this point. I haven't gotten to look in heavy detail today but it seems the HRRR is starting to establish some sort of consistency, at least regarding the banding.

yes, we are back in business with it

It would be within the banding

That is quite the unstable layer with some intense lift it it as well. Going to be a fun time under the banding.

IT'S BACK!!!!!!

models shomdels...its now casting time. This will be one of the most fun maps to watch the remainder of the evening

Wow this snow is coming quick. Visiting my mom at the hospital in New Britain and certainly want to get back to Springfield before it starts. I also need to get a ruler b/c mine is broken. Observation: the sky definitely looks like snow! Can’t wait

I just thought the exchange was funny

like this though? I'm just ready for the mesoanylsis at this point. We've done all the modeling we can for this one. We can digest the next set of models until the storm ends...mesoanalysis time.

This NAM is just ridiculous with this storm. Has it had one run-to-run consistency? It's almost laughable. So not worth using for this one.

I think the NAM broke

I hate when this chasing convection crap. You want to disregard it, but we've some times before where the NAM sniffed this possibility out. Is it likely, actually not not you don't want see this popping up.

Here goes another wonky NAM solution

when they're off your screen

you can't see without looking

Good...we need it for the snow

sure is. I'm hoping to see some lightning strikes tomorrow night. And by Lightning strikes I don't mean the Tampa Bay Lightning scoring, I mean negative charges in the clouds having a date with some positive charges on the ground.

I remember that...I was at school. A few classmates commuted and took them like 5 hours to go home lol.

18z GFS bufkit for BDL. That would probably briefly yield 2.5''/hr rates. It kind of sucks the window for the most intense lift is so short.

Bridgeport is just bad period