weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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That is a nice hit for the interior on the euro...we take! some mixing concerns along the coast though. Very excited right now, but holding off on any kind of snowfall total forecast until Friday 12z runs. -
I can't wait to start geeking out over Bufkit. 12z GFS usually out around noon...sometimes as early as 11:56 AM EST. It might be early but it's never early.
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I can picture a freakout Sunday because the radar is looking bleak then all of a sudden we see a re-blossom of the precip as the trailing s/w makes its way in the picture.
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I mentioned something similar I think yesterday, but I could see two jackpot areas in this. I was thinking something like just north of the sfc/850 low and then maybe something else with the 700 warm front.
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I like the GFS thus far. What could really help this storm overachieve somewhere is the tight baroclinic zone with this. That's a pretty strong temperature gradient in the latitude. I also like how the sfc low is more tightly wrapped up and the 850 low track looks good. You can argue 850 may get going too late but the scale of lift is pretty strong over a large area.
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That's what I'm kind of leaning towards as well. I think this will be a decent first event for everyone and at least something that ends the shutout. My initial expectations are for something in the 3-6'' range. If we get closer and things start falling in place and there is room for something higher...awesome. But I'm not going to be disappointed if I got 3''
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How many times does this type of solution actually pan out though? I feel like it's not very common.
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I wouldn't use the NAM for this system if the NAM was the last model available.
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Is that how they do win on Jupiter?
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Steve's photos are actually easier to interpret than this
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This could be a stretch but it's interesting to note majority of the advisories which were in place across the Sierra's have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. The energy coming into the West has been trending stronger. Maybe this would help the likelihood the s/w remains stronger crossing the country and decreases potential of being sheared out?
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There was that one event the few days before Thanksgiving where Westfield did get a few inches, but at least where I am in Springfield we got nada...maybe just some flakes. Did have that Friday where we got snow showers all day and had a Trace but that is about it.
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GFS has some pretty steep mid-level lapse rates so maybe we can get some thundersnow potential. I always like looking for thundersnow potential in the more dynamic events. If anything, its a great way to sharpen the mind and prepare for May 1st.
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It doesn't matter how you get there, all that matters is that you get there.
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It's difficult to believe there would not be blockbuster potential within that pattern. I'd be nervous for suppression, but taking the IMBY perspective out of it, that screams blockbuster potential. Could be here or could be towards the mid-Atlantic.
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ehhh I wouldn't put too much stock into that just yet. That is highly dependent on the mid-week storm. I would not be too surprised if we saw that get shunted south and east a bit and we don't really warm sector at all.
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Agreed, that's what I'm thinking as well.
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quite a bit of spread but pretty clear to see why the spread exists. stronger vs weaker I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some spread arise over the next day or two before things tighten up again. Only question will be is when things tighten up again, is it towards the north/stronger camp or south/weaker?
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The EPS train has arrived at the station, all aboard. Next stop, wintry New England.
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It's interesting how last winter, I think it was January too, we were in La Nina state but we had that period where the pattern was very EL Nino like. Now we're in EL Nino moving into January and we have a La Nina like pattern. Certainly not seeing the ocean/atmosphere couple, or struggling to do so. This I think was hinted extremely well by the MEI.
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yeah...I was more just looking at it from an overall perspective and eliminating the fine details. Maybe just a coping mechanism
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Agreed...def still thinking the coast is going to have at least some mixing issues with this. What I liked on the Euro was the evolution of the storm and where it starts to strengthen and how it strengthens as it passes south of Long Island. Putting away track and how many mb deep it is, I love to see the strengthening occur like that because we're far from occlusion and going to maximize the dynamics and amount of moisture being thrown into the CCB.
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I forgot they have the euro soundings. I should explore that and maybe ditch weathermodels.
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I wish I could see euro soundings. Looks like it may have a funky warm layer in there
