weatherwiz

I hope not. I'm tired of shitty springs and it not getting hot until July and we get like 7 weeks of summer. After March 15 I'm ready for 70's and by April 15 give me 80's, May give me 90's and by June pound me with 100's. Oh and high humidity by April too.

I'm sure Isaac Newton would have much preferred a pine cone fall on his head than an apple.

That synopsis matches extremely well with how that winter progressed. You could see the pattern evolving for January would favor the interior and then come February favored more towards the coast/Cape. Actually looking at this season a bit deeper I probably shouldn't have been so quick to write it off as an analog

If we see a February with a rather robust block I would not be surprised to see that carry deeper into March. I'd have to look back since I'm doing this from memory right now, but I feel like some of our biggest late season blocks seem to carry over into the spring months and that's when we get our brutal springs.

57-58 was one of the years I heavily skewed towards in my winter outlook. 65-66 was in one of my lists but I eliminated that as it was near super strong category (or into). How was 86-87 in terms of snowfall? I had that as a wild card analog but I felt this winter would see more blocking than that winter.

But yeah definitely a several day mild stretch this weekend into Tuesday. I could see some spots Tuesday pushing 65-72.

I think we will get an Aleutian Low to form at some point...not just because of it's climo with EL Nino but other factors too such as the trend with the PDO. We ay see instances where the Aleutian Low weakens but if we can get a nice Aleutian Low established that could help enhance potential for blocking as well. Interesting times ahead.

This is totally weenie range and just the GFS but you have to love it's evolution with respect to the northern Pacific and its response across the Arctic domain. One great note to see is not a strong PV (at least in terms of tropospheric PV). This is one reason I'm big on blocking scenarios this upcoming winter because with a rather robust EQBO already in place, it might be very difficult for the PV to become established and strengthen as we move through the Fall and into the early winter. Anyways, we see plenty of little PV lobes get dip south at times and what I really like are these height anomalies within the Arctic...core of the anomalies are right within the Arctic domain around the North Pole region and you can see the ridging building SE to NW into Greenland. We could get some periods of rather robust -AO/-NAO combo and when you throw in transitioning PNA's...big potential could loom early in the season. I do think we could be active early on then we may get a bit of a lull and boredom for a few weeks (which could freak some people out) but that is part of another cycle/transition, (or pattern reload). After that reload if blocking can become established and the norm it could be quite fun.

wow did it clear out quickly here. It was cloudy like 10 min ago and I just look outside and it's predominately blue sky (looking east).

Looks like we will get some mild days upcoming. But the way things are headed I think the second half of November is going to be quite stormy. At least to me, the look going through November is vastly different from the past two years. Seems like we'll favor phasing and/or cyclogenesis much closer to the coast moving into the second half of November...past few winters it's been predominately towards the OV region.

Sun angle is about as overrated as the Edmonton Oilers

I like this look...matches well with how I think DJFM average out for this upcoming winter.

yes

sticking to everything but the pavement now. grass coated, fence getting coated, rooves all coated

into moderate snow now and starting to coat on the grass!

Flake size might be bigger than anything I saw last winter

It is coming down pretty good now!

I'm not really knowledgeable with tree types and species but looking around the neighborhood it's pretty weird. There are trees which are completely bare and just about bare (like the two trees we have in front) while some trees have most of their leaves and still changing color. Neighbors tree still have much of its leaves.

I like 12/2

nearly a solid light snow now.

Flakes falling in Springfield!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm really hoping to spend some time studying the Arctic this winter...both with evolution and continuing to look historically. I also want to look into the other side of the hemisphere...from say eastern Europe through Russia. There is one teleconnection pattern I wanted to look into but I forget what it is. I don't think it was the East Atlantic - Western Russia pattern (EA/WR) or Polar Eurasia pattern...but maybe it was one of these two. But there was another one.

I should also add...1986-1987 was on my list as a wild card in that if we don't get much blocking this winter may really suck

Thank you both. That was exhausting...never typing that much detail again My base years BTW are 1957-1958, 1963-1964, and 1968-1969. Only negative I saw for 2 of these years was were tropical forcing was located, but I don't think tropical forcing signal is going to have significant weight overall.

I apologize for providing a blog link here, but it would be a major pain to transfer everything here into a post, also with the number of images I have, I don't even think I have the upload capacity. I absolutely regret how lengthy this became and you'll see towards the end I just got much lazier. I started typing this up at the beginning of October but I have limited time where I can do blog work. I absolutely don't expect anyone to read through all of it. https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook.html