weatherwiz

I'll be there. plan on getting there for the 2 PM and probably leave around 5:30 and get home for the B's game.

yeah some nice looking soundings up north. wouldn't be surprised if a few spots picked up a couple inches or so quickly.

Could be some intense snow squalls up north tomorrow. Maybe even some thunder

I am fine with whatever. But if 2-3 people aren't going to be able to make it for 12/2 and say they are 2-3 out of like 12 that plan on going...maybe it's not a bad idea to move it. Is anyone who plans on going for 12/2 also free for 12/9?

I can’t wait until we get Storm after storm…1 storm a week for 6-7 weeks straight.

The thought of the sun beginning to set later in like 5 weeks is appealing. But yeah it takes a few weeks to really notice. For me it doesn't even really become noticeable until its like 6:00 and still light out

If that blocking does materialize, perhaps that round of blocking doesn't net us much, however, I think it will set the stage for some bigger things to come once we move towards the end of the month or into January. I seriously hope though this NAO isn't overblown. If we can get blocking like this in December...watch out. Those who went with torch December just b/c "that is strong EL Nino climo" must be sweating...and it's not from the torch either.

As long as it doesn't make it's way inside.

well it needs to get back into the grass and off the house. That thing is massive

Saw this on the house this morning. Is this like a brown recluse????

Are we still doing 12/2?

That is also similar to the February-March means of 1914-1915, 1957-1958!!!, 1968-1969

December-January 1965-1966 is what I was thinking of. Ray's favorite analog

Thanks! I've been trying to spend a ton of time analyzing composites in the NPAC and understand how configurations help shape the Arctic domain. I was trying to recall off the top of my head seeing a few EL Nino events where the GOA vortex became quite displaced south and east was good or bad for us. My relocation was it was bad as it promoted better ridging potential, but perhaps in this case the NAO is so overpowering it helps keep the ridging west a bit. This look though reminds me of a few Nino events...have to go back and see which ones. Well that would go with the notion where interior usually cashes in early on in the Nino's and then costal areas cash in later.

I feel like we want that GOA vortex to be a bit farther north and west...correct?

All in all I think we're definitely backing away from the idea of a typical EL Nino December. It certainly looks like we may be on the "milder" side to start but I think we're going to see a transition occur in December and not January. Personally, from a work perspective I hope we can keep the country quiet through Christmas but I have a hunch second week of December things begin to change.

If I could weenie myself I would

That's almost like what I'm expecting to see for January in the mean, just a bit less extreme.

meh voodoo From what I read, it can yield what seems to be very accurate results, but it can't explain how it arrived at the results or show the work. Big red flag. Only benefit seems to be is it produces output much more quickly. That's what resources should be investing in...how to produce the data more quickly and efficiency.

Rain here in Springfield. May have started as some flakes. I went to Wendy’s a bit after 8:00 and things were wet (no signs of snow). Rain started again as I was driving and I think I saw a few mangled flakes.

Agreed, I'm still feeling 1957-1958 vibes. The signals we're starting to see for December are quite encouraging. what I would really hate to see are signals of a strengthening and dominating PV, which nothing has really suggested. Obviously we'll see some seasonal strengthening, but if the PV fails to become established moving into or through first half of December...I expect blocking begins to set in and we're off to the races as we get a much more favorable VP over the CONUS.

We need that big time. Past few years, even when we've seen some signs of a trough into the East there was always ridging hanging around just to or east...or the likelihood the trough axis would be too far west and we pump up heights in the East. That concern is gone with this look.

Can't hate where that mean trough axis is

Definitely going to see some heavy snow in spots later on. It is quite cold and with the super low dew points evap cooing should cool things even more. Some pretty intense 850 fronto too in this core of WAA

It is extremely encouraging. Definitely love to see that. Once we are able to shake the rising air over much of the CONUS as well (evident by that VP map) we should start to get a more active look...something beyond just frontal systems and frontal system induced lows.