what a f'ing disaster driving down 91 this morning. Thankfully I use maps so I was aware of the accidents and did detours but people are freaking ridiculous. Driving 80 mph and swerving in/out of lanes.
Looking pretty good for a several hour period of 1''+ rates in Portland.
This can sometimes be a bit wonky at times with snowfall but this would be disastrous when combined with the wind
This is why the P-type maps can suck too and not great to use. Given how cold it is aloft, combined with some dry air, it isn't surprising many are seeing sleet or sleet mixing in.
given the steep lapse rate you would think the neat sfc freezing temp is probably a very shallow layer and then quickly cooling but yeah there certainly is room to cool the column further.
Can you recall seeing a winter storm potential where bufkit was spitting out 65-70 knots atop the mixed layer? I'm sure it's happened but that seems quite anomalous for these parts.
The best use the snow maps will be for this storm is printing out thousands and thousands of copies and using the paper to help keep wood stoves and fire pits going with the mass power outages coming to those up north.
Coastal areas are going to get rocked by wind and even into the interior. Low-level lapse rates are quite steep. I wonder if coastal Maine/New Hampshire could gusts 70-80 mph.
That is one wonky thermal profile from like 800mb to 660mb or so. Looks like the NAM is trying to dynamically cool the column though on the 12z run around 42hr?
gotcha...should have been more clear. Meant it could be good for those riding the line as it at least keeps them in the game, it doesn't completely end hope (accounting for the possibility of more favorable ticks).