weatherwiz

same here. If January and/or February do not work out I am going to be at a loss for words.

Rolling that pattern forward would probably equate to big January potential

Here's IJD. There's only so many locations you can get bufkit data for. Here's HVN

Here is the 6z GFS bufkit for BDL. Max gust potential I can find atop the mixed layer is 51 knots. But looking at the sounding, it's pretty unlikely we would actually fully mix so adjusting the Momentum Xfer down a notch you can see now something around 35 knots...this is more realistic There is higher wind potential on the backside with the CAA and better mixing with steeper lapse rates

The algorithm in those wind maps must be designed to use a constant mixing depth. At least on bufkit you can play around with different mixing heights.

Gotta wait until May or June for widespread 65-70 mph winds with convection.

Hope you sleep with an umbrella

That would certainly help.

Ridiculous. Pretty graphics and customized outputs to raise the hype.

That one had steep mlvl lapse rates (which steepened through the evening) and a nice little plume of MLCAPE > 250 J/KG. None of this will be present Sunday. I thought llvl lapse rates were steeper but I guessnot

The February 2016 event is a textbook scenario of how you get a big wind event in these setups. That had steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level lapse rates and unseasonably high llvl theta-e given the impressive warmth/moisture surge.

1) Strong convection 2) steep llvl lapse rates That's what you need to really get the wind to perform in these setups. Heavy rain can certainly help with momentum transport, however, the heavy rain also further weakens the lapse rates and can enhance llvl inversions. It is certainly possible there could be a rouge 45-55 mph gust inland if there are any embedded areas of strong convection. I still think there may be a forced line of convection along the front, but instability seems pretty weak and there probably won't be much, if any, lightning. If anything, this line would help get some gusts in the 35-40 mph range as opposed to 25-35 which will be more common.

The worst of the weather will likely be overnight Sunday anyways when everyone will be sleeping. It will be pretty breezy for everyone...would suspect sustained winds 15-25 mph (lesser for those sheltered) with gusts 30-40. Certainly nothing special. We'll see stronger wind gusts probably with the CAA

It was 135 points

ahh right. Bruins play too...guess I know what I'll be watching. Maybe there is some draftkings prop where you can bet the Bruins will put up more goals than the Patriots will points.

Could be a fun game in Pittsburgh Sunday...maybe the wind can give Jones some extra zap on his throws

Yes, don't want to leave that out. Does look like they will be wedged a bit and then mix out once the front nears. But still think any wintry potential on the backside is overdone

It drives me nuts when there is a "storm potential" and it's blatantly obvious the threat is minimal-to-none but some people will try to defend the potential by saying, "but you never know what will happen"...that's such a BS phrase.

I'm not very sold on it right now. It still gets very mild out ahead of it. What looked to happen on the GFS was these subtle sfc waves that develop along the front and that could be one reason for the PTYPE alogirthms to spit out some blue. But I don't see much out ahead of the front which is going to prevent temperatures from rising quite a bit, even up north. Dewpoints too should surge well into the 40's.

There was someone who did that at one of the TV stations (not Ryan's) in CT a few months back. I think it was for that TS that ended up giving some impact to eastern Maine. They showed a wind gust map on a Monday afternoon for Saturday across CT which showed gusts like 50-60 mph. Whatever drives the hype I guess

Some see pretty colors on the wind maps and 925 or 850 and think that will equate down to the sfc. We all know how difficult it is to truly mix down winds in these setups. More often not that too, the stronger the winds in those levels, the stronger the inversion too. If mixing down those winds were easy here in these setups we wouldn't have any trees...or trees would probably grow to be 10' tall.

Agreed there...I mean for those who forecast and for that area it's a different ballgame but we're not seeing 60-70 mph gusts inland or region wide unless we get a helluva line of convection to plow through which I don't see happening

Certainly have to watch the Cape and Islands for some big wind gusts Sunday night into early Monday morning. GFS has a pretty hefty llvl jet at 925. Get sfc temps around 60 or just a tick over and there could be some 65-70 mph gust potential there.

ehhh I think that is overdone. The cold air looks to lag big time at the sfc and it's dry out aloft rather rapidly.

sure it's not paint?