weatherwiz

Can’t wait I I til tomorrow morning when we can put models away and switch gears to mesoanalysis and now casting.

I swear doing stuff like that has come back to bite me hard. I mean I am constantly always fatigued now. It doesn't matter how much sleep I get. It actually really sucks. I used to go to bed like 2-3 AM and then wake up at 7 lol. I remember a few times staying up for like 2 days in a row I think I was up for like 42 hours straight when the Dec 08 ice storm was going on.

Unfortunately, my days of staying up all night are long gone, too old now. I really miss being able to do it. I think it was the 2013 blizzard I stayed up all night for...that was awesome. I miss the days of staying up late for the 0z models, especially during the summer. When I saw a severe threat several days out I never used to go to bed lol...I would just nap throughout the day. Bruins also play tomorrow night so I'll be having a 9% IPA or two so that will knock me down. Maybe I'll get an energy burst.

Thundersnow potential overnight drives me nuts. I've had a few occasions when I was a youngin' where I thought I heard thundersnow overnight and fell out of bed...only for it to be the plows. DAMN YOU PLOWS

Looks like it wants to rejuvenate the CCB even back across CT

I'm hoping this is too fast but even the 18z NAM is on the faster side as well (though not as fast as the HRRR).

yeah this timing is getting crazy quick. I just mentioned in my write up start of 7-9 PM...that's going to be a big fail

He must have his laptop upside down

I did mention isolated power outages are possible

I did not! I did spend a good deal of time though with eastern/northeastern MA. going to be a tight gradient

Finally made a forecast https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/01/sunday-january-7-2024-southern-new.html

Very good there...not so good for southern CT and areas closer to the coast

hmmm I just realized I mistake I may have made earlier when looking at the NAM fronto. Been looking all around at 700mb frontogenesis maps. The focus here is going to be more in the 850-700mb layer than it would be 700-600 or 700-550mb layer. I just looked at the 850 fronto and its pretty wild. Great news too is lift would be strong enough to punch into the DGZ.

There will certainly be a tight gradient around there. Right along the water totals will be much less but you go a few miles inland and they'll probably get several inches.

Bufkit doesn't look bad for BOS. I could see BOS potentially getting in the 5-8'' range, especially if the banding blesses them.

Think it's becoming clear where the swath of highest totals will be southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, and central Mass into eastern Mass.

Nothing better than the sound of neighbors starting up snowblowers in preparation for the storm. Sometimes multiple neighbors will be doing so at once and it sounds like an symphony.

West Hartford is great. Phenomenal school system (or at least it was...not sure about anymore), clean, and low crime (though from what I read that's increased). Property taxes are disgusting though. And too keep this weather related, West Hartford can get some nasty weather...both snow and thunderstorms. Of course, being in the valley they can get screwed but if the CCB works out they can get crushed. Feb 06 I got around 27'', the '11 blizzard was another around 27'', and Feb 13 in that ball park too. There was a stretch I had hail at least once per summer for a stretch of like 7-8 years. I loved going to Rockledge Golf Course at times to watch the thunderstorms come in from the West. The tree damage across the city in the Oct 2011 snowstorm was wild. Some streets looked like an F0 tornado ripped through as they were just littered with branches, limbs, and leaves.

If Reggie nails this can we refer to the model as Mr. January moving forward?

I miss West Hartford...certainly got screwed at times, but was pretty fortunate to have three 2' snow events. I hate it here in Springfield. I so can't wait to move back into CT.

I like where I am in Springfield. I told my girlfriend this could be the biggest storm she's ever seen up here.

Or since it's January, "There we go to the golf course".

I forgot you can do x-sections. I'm pretty sure though you do need a mouse to do them.

One concern I've always had with this is where will your subsidence zone be? Anytime you are dealing with CCB you're going to have a subsidence zone. I was thinking some days ago we could see two fronto bands develop (one north closer to 700 warm front and one just north of the sfc low). Then it was a question would these two converge, and where? I think the one thing we have to watch is how organized this storm becomes...how tightly wrapped do the 850 and 700 lows get? As the system is developing and strengthening, the fronto band is going to be far removed from the lows...so this makes sense that dendrite's area could be in a great spot. But as or if things tighten, we would see the banding drop south, closer to the lows. This is going to be important when looking for the higher amounts across Connecticut.

I've been in contact with Walt and the hope is it will be fixed soon. I've been mostly using the 700 fronto on the NAM on cod or TT.