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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    The fish getting sucked up must be getting dizzy. Looks like sushi hour coming early.
  2. weatherwiz
    pretty solid velocities with that. definitely the best area of the day thus far.
  3. weatherwiz
    New Bedford going to get slammed
  4. weatherwiz
    That's headed towards New Bedford looks like
  5. weatherwiz
    Big winds southeast of Newport
  6. weatherwiz
    hmmm was there a brief TDS?
  7. weatherwiz
    TOR for rotation near Sutton
  8. weatherwiz
    Kind of figured RI and eastern MA would get nailed today. High theta-e air + strong llvl jet with approaching front.
  9. weatherwiz
    I'm sick and tired of these stupid fake severe threats. If I want to watch something spin and fail I'll just turn on the Price is Right and watch people try to spin that giant wheel and land on $1.
  10. weatherwiz
    Had a deluge getting into Branford earlier. Thank god it started towards the tail end of me being on 95. Luckily it was brief too.
  11. weatherwiz
    double click on the image and reduce the size.
  12. weatherwiz
    Yup that thing is a monster right now and right in the area of increasing shear
  13. weatherwiz
    Seems like the strongest shear is starting to get a jolt eastwards. Made a post a little earlier suggesting this was becoming more of a straight-line wind event versus tornado as I was wondering if that shear would end up lagging but hodos are certainly starting to enlarged and gain curvature.
  14. weatherwiz
    OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH BABYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
  15. weatherwiz
    One over Saint James is a monster for sure
  16. weatherwiz
    This is definitely beginning to favor straight-line wind damage over tornadoes. Tornadoes certainly possible with any discrete cells or within any QLCS. Seems like the better llvl shear is lagging a bit and sfc winds not as backed
  17. weatherwiz
    steep mlvl lapse rates and rich theta-e air FTW
  18. weatherwiz
    Maryland down into north-central Virginia seems pretty ripe. Another area (just outside of the moderate risk is western North Carolina). But from Maryland down into north-central Virginia, mesonalysis indicates a large area of 2000 J/KG of MLCAPE with RAP developing as much as 2500 ahead of the line of approaching storms. 2-6km lapse rates around 7.5 C/KM with llvl lapse rates 8-8.5 C/KM. These are big wind signals, especially with DCAPE values up around 1200 J/KG with large 3km CAPE overspreading this area too. Increasing ulvl jet with approaching jet streak should result in rapidly increasing ulvl divergence too over the next hour. This stuff is really going to take off as it moves from West Virginia into Maryland and north-central Virginia.
  19. weatherwiz
    Yeah I am rather impressed. Pretty steep mid-level lapse rates, rich llvl theta-e air, and a pretty potent H3 and H5 jet max punching into the region. I was a little unsure yesterday/early morning exactly how big this could be, but those 2-6km lapse rates are pretty steep and if often times a big discriminator in big wind vs. non big wind events. There could be a very narrow swath of some pretty significant wind damage should a bow develop.
  20. weatherwiz
    Really? wow...I find that rather puzzling.
  21. weatherwiz
    If anything I'd think there is more of a chance of an upgrade to high risk/60% wind then there is upping the TOR probs given the predominate linear mode. EDIT: But I think the overall look may be just short of that kind of upgrade.
  22. weatherwiz
    12z NAM bufkit profile for BWI is pretty wild. Obviously this doesn't mean anything will happen, but it shows what potential exists *should* thunderstorm updrafts be able to utilize these available ingredients. Looks like some VBV going on, but that combination of shear/CAPE is pretty scary. Hail CAPE nearly 900 J/KG. EQL too way up there.
  23. weatherwiz
    It's less painful thinking it's closer than it really is
  24. weatherwiz
    Looks like all systems go for a derecho event to unfold today...though maybe would like to see a bit stronger llvl wind fields. Anyways, looks like llvl lapse rates will continue to strengthen over the next few hours with 2-6km lapse rates already on order of 7-7.5 C/KM and even some pockets of 8 C/KM. Those are pretty eye opening for a significant wind event, especially with DCAPE values up around 1000 J/KG and even some higher pockets around. A strong tornado is even possible in any discrete cell that doesn't have its updraft interfered with.
  25. weatherwiz
    Blocking is going to be he bigtime wildcard this winter. If we can get any favorable blocking winter is going to deliver. There is no doubt in my mind on that. I've never really followed those long-range climo models before so I don't really know anything about them, but for some of them to be showing that degree of blocking (which I would assume would be top percentile type stuff) has to be extremely encouraging.
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