weatherwiz

Gotcha, thanks. Thought the correlation strengthened as winter progressed.

1) The structure and placement of the blocking in the Arctic isn't very favorable for loading cold into the NE. 2) The correlation between AO/NAO and NE temperatures is much stronger moving towards January and for February than it is November into December.

Glad to hear!

How is the -PDO not encouraging? -PDO/EL Nino combo's can be fine. Below are a list of winters which featured a -PDO during an EL Nino. Certainly, you can see one of the biggest differentiators in the hemispheric pattern is tied into whether blocking develops and how prominent blocking can become.

I think this is the longest I've ever been sick outside of like 2015 when I had a sinus infection and I was sick for like a month...but that's because I didn't realize it was a sinus infection and left it untreated. When I had covid the first time I was sick for like a day-and-a-half. Both my girlfriend and I have been sick since Monday. I really hope we can try and reschedule this. Maybe shoot for the spring?

My girlfriend and I are still quite sick so it’s definitely a no go .

I'm thinking a strip of 10-16'' possible where the heaviest banding occurs and confidence seems to be increasing such a band will materialize. Certainly some support for 2''+ per hour rates based on some of the bufkit data.

this could be a fun little "surprise" for some. Might be a forecasting nightmare though for areas borderline. Some of those borderline locations end up a smidge colder and its easily close to several inches given the rates.

Looks like the 18z NAM coming onboard for Sun into Mon too

Seems like the Euro gets several inches for PWM

Euro seems to look good up north. Looks like a heafy band would materialize

GFS bufkit is pretty hefty thumping for PWM for a period.

It's certainly cutting it close. Some minor ticks in each direction on the GFS would be pretty huge in terms of result. If the Euro can remain steadfast at 12z that may be enough to increase the excitement level a bit, but want to at least see these subtle trends through 0z tonight/12z tomorrow.

Yeah looking at the GFS I think PWM would probably start as rain but verbatim would probably flip over to snow, especially with heavier rates.

That would actually probably be pretty nice for interior SW CT

there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc.

There is definitely room to get things a bit cooler for areas borderline.

certainly looking fun on the 12z gfs for up north Sunday into Monday. could be a decent band of heavy snow that materializes.

I think the only way we get screwed this winter, is if we get intense blocking which results in a suppressed pattern and neither of us are expecting blocking to be that extreme. I don't think we get screwed because of cutters or b/c we get flooded with mild PAC air.

Frustration is fine and this place is a great place to let off frustration because it's not like we can do it in public Can do it in front of family/friends but they'll just give s funny looks. The problem is when the frustration starts to intertwine and interfere with the discussion. If someone is providing insight and thoughts into how things may evolve moving forward (backed with science) and it's a barrage of posts where the frustration dilutes the discussion then it becomes not fun anymore.

ehhh I think it's even beyond frustration from last winter, it's just impatience. It's understandable...you want that first event to happen but we just got into December lol. Mostly everyone here should know and understand climo and when our favorable period is for storms/snow. It's like cancelling summer on June 2 because nobody hit 90 yet.

Yeah understanding the strengths/weaknesses of models should certainly be factored in. One example of this is with forecasting temperatures and using MOS. We see this very often during the spring months, but MOS tends to struggle mightily when it comes to highly anomalous patterns. When we see an anomalously warm airmass in the spring, MOS can underdo temperatures badly. See this often in the heart of the country too...sometimes MOS will miss in places by like 10-15F can't argue that

was just looking for any posts on this I am sick as a dog...not even sure I can make it through the Bruins game but if this is legit I may try super hard. My gf is quite sick too so not sure either of us will be up to it.

Great post, well said. Couldn't agree more. This is a pretty darn good way to state things. And what I have bolded irks me too. It's not that models "change". I mean when you think of it, the solution the model is spitting out is the product of how the pattern is evolving (time step derivatives, leap frog equation...I forget what that was called. Did that in mesoanalysis. I remember one Thanksgiving morning tackling that homework assignment). So feasibly, the solution the model is spitting out is correct...assuming the evolution occurs that way. Ultimately though, I think it just comes down to expectations and we let emptions get in the way and then all hell breaks loose.

I've often wondered if going to coarser and finer resolutions has had some sort of negative feedback...but maybe the positives outweigh the negatives.