weatherwiz

Similar setup Saturday too.

I wonder if it follows the instability gradient and ends up progressing into areas not within the Outlook

Looks like capping around 500mb and quite a bit of dry air aloft may be big inhibitors tomorrow say south of the Pike. I'm leaning towards a scenario tomorrow where we see discrete supercells develop across eastern NY and move into VT, MA, and NH with activity organizing into a line towards eastern sections. The forcing is really tied into the strong shortwave with not much frontal forcing (no real cold front pushing east). Given the degree of wind shear, both speed and directional, the degree of forcing we will have should favor a discrete storm mode. There may be enhanced forcing farther east (sea-breeze) which may help activity consolidate some. I am very uncertain as to what to expect south into CT, but I think the seabreeze front should act least act as a initiator.

Indeed, quite a bit actually. This could end up being pretty nasty across northeast MA.

At least there were some microbusts that weekend. Wasn't there also a macrobust too?

That was from 2010 we have 5% tomorrow

Tomorrow may favor eastern areas (say east of 84) but I would not count eastern CT out. Have to closely assess this more a bit later on but there seems to maybe some some capping or maybe some subsidence issues in CT but activity could develop very quickly east of the river.

May see an upgrade to enhanced. Could see a decent swath of wind damage reports.

It’s alright. Thursday is going ti be what we all want. Hot with super high humidity. Friday maybe even better.

Just enough bulk shear in place to help everything become organized, but llvl shear is pretty weak (which is a player in the FF potential) and llvl lapse rates aren't particularly steep (thanks to the extensive cloud cover today) so we really need some good cores to get damaging wind gusts.

Stuff may strengthen a bit as it moves into central CT

Well if we can get dews in the 73-76 range that would compensate for poor mlvl lapse rates

There's been some reports. These are pretty decent thunderstorms. Overall, ingredients for anything more than localized severe are a bit marginal. But could see a uptick in some severe potential as lapse rates are steepening and hail CAPE is pretty decent. May at least see some small hail reports and localized wind damage.

if that stuff continues building into Springfield its going to be nasty with the flooding.

no but I think I should be good to chase. Doctors appointment at 9 AM so working remote.

I am so glad I am remote today and not in Branford. I'd be so pissed. Non-stop thunder for like 3 hours now.

Just saw a sick CG out my window and of course camera was off b/c battery is dying.

So much rain it's quite cool out. Almost feels like mid January..temps much be in the mid 60's. Thinking of making some hot cocoa

I don't think there is a specific distance, I think it varies from airport to airport. I'm sure though an airport as big as BOS has the automatic alert system where if lightning is detected within a certain proximity the lights and sirens go off and everyone outside must take shelter.

decent wind gusts

Storm #2

just had a pretty close strike!

"Slowed" down here over the past few minutes but some pink pixels just to the west again. My girlfriend came back home for lunch (since the exam is literally 1 minute up the road) and as soon as she pulled in the driveway it started coming down so she had to drive back in it

my phone just went off for it. It is dumping. Not much else though...some rumbles of thunder.

Potential exists Thursday for widespread thunderstorms to propagate in a west-to-east fashion across the region late afternoon through mid-evening; including the possibility for numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms which will be capable of producing damaging winds and/or hail with a few tornadoes also possible. Note: Model graphics being used but not mean that model is being favored, the product is just being used for illustrative purposes. Forecast models are in agreement that an unseasonably strong shortwave energy embedded within seasonably strong jet traverses New England during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast models differ within just how strong this shortwave energy will be which will determine the overall strength of the shear. A warm front lifts northeast across the region during the morning resulting in a surge of high llvl theta-e air characterized by surface dewpoints climbing into the lower 70's. This combined with surface temperatures climbing into the 80's should contribute to a moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/KG. One determent to stronger instability may be the mid-level lapse rates. H7 temperatures are forecast to be around +10C with H5 temperatures only around -8C. Forecast model soundings show some warm pockets aloft which would lead to weaker mlvl lapse rates and could prevent stronger instability from materializing. As mentioned above, dynamics should be rather strong (just a question of how strong) with H5 jet of 40-60 knots and a llvl jet in excess of 30-40 mph resulting in a good deal of speed shear. With the warm front nearby, sfc winds will be more S to SSE with winds changing with direction with height through the troposphere. Winds increasing with speed with height (speed shear) combined with winds changing direction with height will contribute to large hodographs. As the shortwave approaches, numerous thunderstorms should develop by mid-to-late afternoon and traverse the region through the mid-evening before exiting the coast. Combination of strong wind shear, strong forcing from the shortwave, and moderate instability should yield numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms which will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. In the event we can materialize steeper mid-level lapse rates a higher end severe threat could materialize.