Jump to content

weatherwiz

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    77,517
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. That's what also pisses me off about this AI voodoo crap. It's all really just crap. If a model at D5 is showing a solution and then wavers back-and-forth up until the day of the event and ended up being what the model showed at D5....IT IS STILL crap because how the hell are you supposed to know at D5 that solution would be correct? It wasn't correct because it kept going back and forth like a tennis ball across the court.
  2. It's almost even pointless to look at models beyond 5 days I mean the last 2-3...maybe 3-4 winters modeling has been awful. I don't care what some graph of Z-scores at H5 show. The model-to-model consistency has been trash, the model run-to-model run has been trash, and confidence even inside 24 hours on many storms has been brutal at times. Even the ENS haven't been particularly reliable. We've had some instances where ENS probs of 6''+ were greater than 50% which turned into crap.
  3. Some just set themselves up for failure with how they're evaluating and interpreting long-range guidance. An OP solution showing a 982mb passing over the benchmark does not mean there is a credible storm threat. A 384 hour snowfall map showing 30-40'' of snow does not mean there are credible storm threats. All anyone should be looking at in the long-range is how the pattern is evolving. Some see the GFS show a blizzard at D12 and it's "let the tracking begin".
  4. I'm hoping to spend more time digging into the MJO. I'm pretty happy with the progression I've made this past year with digging into seasonal forecasting but one area I haven't had the opportunity to dig into yet is the MJO. I was starting to question myself a few weeks ago (and then got COVID so last week was a drag just to work) about how I thought tropical forcing west of the dateline was good for us (that's what my composites seemed to elicit) but if this is where MJO phases are warmer for us then something must be off with what I was doing.
  5. Nope and that's what I'm hold out hope on. Ultimately, I don't think we really need the MJO to get into more favorable phases. I would probably rather the MJO just kind of peter out all together and become a weak signal. But seeing how right now much is relied on tropical forcing...it's really anyone's guess on how everything progresses during the second half of the month. Models still struggle mightily with MJO waves/tropical forcing. If we can get these changes to start showing face on short-term guidance (inside 72 hours) we may have something.
  6. As optimistic as I am about January and February, if this becomes a situation where we have to rely on the MJO to get into more favorable phases and become fixated there for a bit...I'm going to start to worry some.
  7. Maybe I'm delirious because I'm pretty sick and these Mucinex extra strength are overpowering me but reading through this thread today at points I've started to think, "well crap maybe winter is cooked". Then I realize... IT'S DECEMBER 2
  8. Gotcha, thanks. Thought the correlation strengthened as winter progressed.
  9. 1) The structure and placement of the blocking in the Arctic isn't very favorable for loading cold into the NE. 2) The correlation between AO/NAO and NE temperatures is much stronger moving towards January and for February than it is November into December.
  10. How is the -PDO not encouraging? -PDO/EL Nino combo's can be fine. Below are a list of winters which featured a -PDO during an EL Nino. Certainly, you can see one of the biggest differentiators in the hemispheric pattern is tied into whether blocking develops and how prominent blocking can become.
  11. I think this is the longest I've ever been sick outside of like 2015 when I had a sinus infection and I was sick for like a month...but that's because I didn't realize it was a sinus infection and left it untreated. When I had covid the first time I was sick for like a day-and-a-half. Both my girlfriend and I have been sick since Monday. I really hope we can try and reschedule this. Maybe shoot for the spring?
  12. My girlfriend and I are still quite sick so it’s definitely a no go .
  13. I'm thinking a strip of 10-16'' possible where the heaviest banding occurs and confidence seems to be increasing such a band will materialize. Certainly some support for 2''+ per hour rates based on some of the bufkit data.
  14. this could be a fun little "surprise" for some. Might be a forecasting nightmare though for areas borderline. Some of those borderline locations end up a smidge colder and its easily close to several inches given the rates.
  15. Looks like the 18z NAM coming onboard for Sun into Mon too
  16. Seems like the Euro gets several inches for PWM
  17. Euro seems to look good up north. Looks like a heafy band would materialize
  18. GFS bufkit is pretty hefty thumping for PWM for a period.
  19. It's certainly cutting it close. Some minor ticks in each direction on the GFS would be pretty huge in terms of result. If the Euro can remain steadfast at 12z that may be enough to increase the excitement level a bit, but want to at least see these subtle trends through 0z tonight/12z tomorrow.
  20. Yeah looking at the GFS I think PWM would probably start as rain but verbatim would probably flip over to snow, especially with heavier rates.
  21. That would actually probably be pretty nice for interior SW CT
  22. there looks to be a very weak CAD signal...weak enough to where the models may be understating how cold it may be. I could see the models being 2-3F too warm at the sfc.
  23. There is definitely room to get things a bit cooler for areas borderline.
  24. certainly looking fun on the 12z gfs for up north Sunday into Monday. could be a decent band of heavy snow that materializes.
×
×
  • Create New...