weatherwiz

Anvil from that tornado warned storm heading into Pittsfield

Tornado warning for cell headed into western MA but it seems more like a straight line wind signal then tornadic to me but it’s close

Yeah some really good winds on that

made thread

Drastic differences between 3km NAM and HRRR though for this evening

Very healthy indeed. Need to watch those discrete cells pretty closely. LCLs are rather high which will probably hold back tornado potential a bit.

As of this writing we have a deepening surface cyclone slowly lifting northeast across southern Quebec province. This is aiding in a northward progression of rich low-level theta-e air with strengthening wind fields in response. There is also a plume of modified elevated mixed-layer air moving across the region. In closer proximity to the surface cold front and surface trough, numerous thunderstorms have developed across upstate New York with mixed modes containing discrete cells and the organization of a squall line. The environment is plenty conducive for numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds and/or large hail with the potential for a few tornadoes. In addition, combination of upscale linear growth with slow southeast advancement as the system becomes parallel to the upper-level flow will result in long-duration torrential downpours yielding the risk for flash flooding - perhaps significant in some spots. As we move deep into the evening, this line should advance across New England, however, as we will lose the diurnal heating this line will be weakening. Enough wind shear and elevated CAPE will keep the low probability for some localized severe weather into the overnight. Given the system becoming parallel to the upper-level flow, the progression of the cold front will slow. This is starting to become better identified within forecast model guidance. This will likely allow the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday. While the environment will not be as prime as it is today, the risk for strong-to-severe thunderstorms with al hazards will be in place. Flash flooding will also be possible Friday and some significant flash flooding is possible.

Going to start a separate thread but I'm wondering if we're setting up for a big day tomorrow. The front is running parallel to the upper flow which will naturally slow down the progression of the front. Notice how the mesos are kind of pushing this activity into our areas a bit later and later...IMO that's indicative of a slower progressing system. Latest HRRR is pretty active tomorrow.

ENHANCED RISK COMING UPSTATE NY!!!! Called it yesterday

Love seeing this

I am hoping to at least be able to go a spot for shelf cloud viewing. Might be tough b/c it will be dark. My go to is always BDL but there is this little shopping plaza about 1 min away that has a great view west. Caught a sick shelf cloud and gust front at that spot last summer (it was a year ago yesterday actually).

Well going to be interesting later this afternoon and evening. Normally you worry about loss of diurnal heating, but shear and lapse rates are quite good. Should be a pretty solid line moving through western sections and then probably weakening as it advances farther east, but we'll see.

These cells are wild. Virtually LP supercells with crazy mesos

MDW REPORTED TORNADO https://twitter.com/iembot_lot/status/1679270444493602816?s=46&t=en2ngd1pOYZyWUScL5JbUA KMDW 122321Z 17007KT 9SM -TSRA SCT060CB BKN095 BKN110 26/22 A2965 RMK TORNADO B12 8 W MOV NE TORNADO E20 AO2 LTG DSNT W AND NW RAB10 TSB18 OCNL LTGICCG VC W TS VC W MOV NE P0002 T02610217

What's really intriguing tomorrow too is there is a bit of an EML that moves overhead. It's not a classic EML but breaks off from the mid-West.

Yeah looks pretty prime around there. Unfortunately, I want be able to do that which blows. I'm hoping there will at least be an opportunity for a sick shelf cloud. I would be able to go a bit farther west into MA depending on timing.

Oh I already am I've made a few posts...was thinking of doing a thread. I was originally more excited for upstate NY into VT but this even looks good across western MA and NW CT. Planning on maybe chasing tomorrow evening.

I am in line for a pounding from the HRRR tomorrow night

There's the marginal risk tomorrow with slight risk for upstate NY!!!!!! Wouldn't be surprised to see enhanced there in future outlooks

I should try to read up and see if there are any studies on how well it actually handles convection. But even in other parts of the country during bigger severe setups it always seems lackluster compared to other model guidance but I kind of feel like it actually does a pretty decent job whereas if you're seeing the 3km NAM going wild with convection...it's a good indicator it will be a big day (and this thinking isn't applied necessarily to our area but across the country).

I'm never sure what to make of the 3km NAM.

It's like the Day After Tomorrow in reverse. Instead of all the sensors tanking everything is rising. Instead of water freezing it may boil away

I will not.

oof what a sounding in upstate NY tomorrow. You get any deep convection in this environment, especially something discrete and it's going to take off. LCL and LFC pretty much the same level so it may not be difficult to get some explosive convection up that way tomorrow. That's a great deal of turning in the lowest few km too.

Just pray we can avoid a pattern favoring cutters...if we can avoid that it could be a wild one.