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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    If this goes the way you noted I will start limiting my posts in this sub for obvious reasons...respect being first. But there is still hope for 40S. Don't give up the ship yet.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Agree with ALL of this. Doing my best to keep optimism and morale high while there is still some semblance of a chance.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is going to be diff...maybe a tick S and E at the very least. Changes with the lobe over SE Canada at 84
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    That's what I posted above. I mean it isnt a fail proof setup, nothing is. But I would take this anywday vs an amped cutter in Pittsburgh at this range.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON absolutely destroys us Friday. Much improved longer duration look with a battle between HP and overunning LP. If this is how we r morphing this I'm fine with that. Less amped would be better.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    I'm not sure the icon look is horrible. It isnt that SW->NE oriented look like the gfs that's tries to cut. Has more of a look sliding W->E with cold pressing to the N. That would make for a much juicier or prolonged overunning for areas N of the boundary. Definitely isn't a strong amped look. A gfs track with weaker system crawling along could work if it can get displaced a bit S
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON going towards the GFS. Pretty significant shift tbh. Northern areas are snow tho at 120.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed. The wrfs are the weakest of all our mesos....but you can gather some general ideas from them. Verbatim? Not so much.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Amazing to see how we appear to be setting up to do the backloaded thing. Frozen tomorrow, significant frozen threat Friday for a chunk of this sub, and after the 8th the pattern is even more promising with the cold boundary established to our South. March is obviously the new January. April should be rockin at this rate
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    WRFs are colder and snowier as well:
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Fv3 came in colder tomorrow night. Great trends for this one so far:
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Hr³ most aggressive with the cold and snow depth change for tomorrow night fwiw:
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Well, they found the reason for the increase in "tornaders" in NJ at least. Makes complete sense now https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRnqDkth/
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    See my last post. I think we r starting to stabilize general track. You're not in a bad spot. It isnt going to continue N every single run for the next 5 days. Big jumps might be over. Probably going to see a fair amt of wobble (windshield wipers) back and forth, NW and SE next several days. Buckle up.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Not a terrible place to be. Obviously farther N and W would fare better in this setup, but close enough that any adjustments will have a significant impact. Hopefully we are starting to stabilize any big shifts and we can start seeing more influence from confluence. Would love to start seeing model adjust S now and start windshield wiper effects.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed. A 971 and a couple 976 lows n and w will definitely do that. Majority of clustering is still pretty much centered around the mean maybe slight lean N.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    6z EPS mean upped snowfall for late week to 7.5" here....some of that may include the Monday night event. Has the >3" probability around 75% here. Encouraging for sure.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    But what about Scotty? One would think Scotty would have to know by now. Iykyk
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    That would also show that everyone who has been ridiculing the GFS all winter for being stubborn and not snowy is seeing this model's upgrades through snow covered glasses. The GFS may very well have become the new King. We just won't know for another couple of weeks, but it sure seems that way right now.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Whatever happens tomorrow night is a very good indicator of what happens late week imho. All guidance that is snowy tomorrow are snowy late week and vice versa. Just something to watch
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    There's another threat at day 10 on the GFS op, so we have that going for us
  23. Ralph Wiggum
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    The UKMET is going to save us
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    We pretty much know how this will end, but it has been a fun trackable event so far. If for some reason we can still be close come Tuesday midday, we might actually catch a break this time. Who knows? I got a feeling Dr No abruptly shuts the door in 2 hours. Hope I'm wrong. Earlier thought it might hold but seeing the cmc and icon move so quickly towards the consistent gfs tells me all I need to know. Catch ya in the am.
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