Ralph Wiggum

All those gorgeous looks degraded yet again overnight. Not horrible but the ens means backing off somewhat. Hopefully not another head fake/can kick.

I saw an enso super extended product that has a sustained Nina mid 2024 thru 2027...so we could be in serious trouble if we don't cash in during this Nino.

Happy Winter Solstice! Longer days from here til June. @ChescoWxhow many weeks til spring training??

@stormtracker...we need you

That split flow with vorts sliding under the epo!!!....need the homer simpson drool pic!!

Bro....chill

Shit, I dunno about warming my heart but that look really warms my loins!!

Droolworthy setup. Nice pattern developing at least towards end of Dec early Jan.

Love the h5 smiley face pattern. Keeps weenies positive and hopeful.

Has anyone here officially declared "winter cancel" yet? Genuinely curious.

Ji is simping these days. His rizz game ain't what it once was.

Now you're talkin!!!

Signal still there for some type of storm Dec 27-Jan 1. Good luck trying to figure it out before Monday. Posting the GFS and Euro 500mb charts to show the complexity of the situation. Vorts spinning and diving all over the country each interaction having a different influence in how the storm plays out. I know it's been said already there isn't a ton of cold to work with prior as this seems to trigger the pattern changes we are seeing in the LR. And others also noted the storms at the start of a pattern change usually aren't 'the one'. Still think this bears close watching as a dynamic event can yield interesting results. Does anyone know our track record wrt 'complicated'?

Word of caution...don't use an ens means to base temps for precip types verbatim. One or 2 mega warm members can skew that severely.

Looks....amazing. We will have flush hits in Jan if those looks verify. Of this I have little doubt. I have nothing to add to @CAPE analysis he covered all bases.

Forcing should line up to match enso and pdo phase as well....probably why we are seeing better placement of the Aleutian low. MJO headed the right way to match. Things are falling into place rather nicely going forward.

Yep,cost me the last leg of my parlay. Luckily that was gravy on the day going in to the SNF game. Would have been nice tho.

Believe it or not I enjoy the Ravens. But I am with you on this 100%

GEFS isn't bad at all. Keep expectations in-check....that's all. And don't be angry if the epic eps look doesn't play out verbatim. Sheeeesh.

I got the Jags +3.5 tonight too btw. You're welcome.

Hasn't the GEFS schooled the EPS wrt the LR last 3 or 4 years? Let's cool our collective jets. Yes, the EPS is a unicorn look. Just.....just let's get closer and get the GEFS on board or some support. BTW, I'm all in for Jan-Feb. Have been since Nov and nothing I see can convince me otherwise attm.

My exact thoughts when I looked at the eps especially. Textbook what we would want to see without major cold around to tap into. Hopefully this week's 2 big lw systems (today/tomorrow and then the one offshore) can rob the atmosphere of some energy for the wrapped up stuff for a little bit.

0z GEPS was also very nice for the same period. I agree with @WxUSAFand @Bob Chill respectively....either a snow to rain situation if a tighter storm or we cash in with a pos/neutral tilt trof and wave sliding across ala the EPS. Its a nice window to wind out the year and ring in the new.

Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time.