Ralph Wiggum

And for some, the warm smell of colitis, rising up through the air

It's like the Hotel California here. Enjoy your stay.

I agree with this 1000%. Takes a rare event for the lowlands but it is not impossible.

I speak for 95% of us here. We are a strange breed. When models show near misses (never understood that oxymoron btw) we try and will the storm to us pointing out little nuances in the flow that would make it work. Subsequently, when models are showing direct hits we look for anything possible on how and why it will fail. We all must be joys at parties.

Define "up North".

I'm all in friend. March has always been our month

100% respect to you, but can we ĝet a discrete threat under 120 hours before you start talking about how we might fail? Cmon man.

Now they are going the route of the 76ers they announced...blowing the team up, rebuild, and "the process". They haven't been relevant since 2010, havent they been rebuilding since then?

All models are honking with the massive blocking pattern. Now we track and see which one works out. This would make for an epic backloaded winter...hit snow climo with 1 event.

GFS a little later. Big time loaded pattern. Has 3 threats....at least one would work out. If we can't get a biggie from an h5 KU looking pattern I don't know what would work anymore

Hot damn!

Setting up for an all time classic there we talk about for years. Powder keg.

GFS with the N Florida blizzard lol. Loaded!

Doesn't quite get it done on the GFS but big changes for the better. Has a parade of near hits. I would think at least 1 of those would work....at least.

Caught beneath the block. As you said, dynamic and would counter the ocean temps. If it's even right.

GFS is honking just after the CMC storm. Loaded pattern for sure.

No he wont

CMC annihilated us March 10-11. Nice pattern evolution across guidance for mid month.

Big run. The changes we were hoping for.

My Flux capacitor is acting up. Time for a little blue pill.

No Sleep Til.....Brooklyn!

GFS looks better thru 120

"Retrograding NAO block meteorologically cannot go S and hookup with a SER"... Euro: hold my beer

I understand what you are saying, but certain model biases allows those models to go a run/streak if the patterns and similar biases set in for a period. We have seen countless times where even AFDs have mentioned such and such model verification scores have been high recently so more weight is being given to said model. Maybe my "hot hand" is sort of vague or broadbrushing or lacked the "verification scores" terminology, but there is substance behind what I said. Now have I looked at a verification chart in the past 4 weeks? I have not, so maybe I'm just bias to this Friday system where the GFS led the way.