Ralph Wiggum

Pretty sure we had a similar pattern in part of Dec but the pattern got overwhelmed with cold. I could be wrong tho.

Different up top or larger SD features but the mid and low lats generally look the same...trof building on West Coast, ridge flexing near the GOM. I realize it is after this period ppl are honking on, but the progression is still 10 days+ away. I suppose the fact it's March and this pattern could work with smaller wavelengths has folks excited for at least a chance. I see the rationale. But realistically and based on track record we've been duped into believing these day 10+ epic potential pattern changes a few times this season. If we get to March 5 or so and the progression still looks favorable headed out past March 8 I cam begin to think this could be different. I hold out hope for mid month, but remain cautiously skeptical for now.

I immediately thought of this scene from Dumb and Dumber

Can we still say "snowman" or do we have to say "crystallized frozen precipitation person"? I can't keep up.

I wonder if that S Central US ridge is going to try and link up with the ridging up top near the NAO region? That could be a fly in the ointment.

Biggest event of the year so far .3" snow/sleet. All snow now:

But....but this time is different. The angle of the NAO is telling

Only because it's 10 days away.

Hail?

Heavy sleet/snow in Warminster 35F

Rain and wet flakes mixed in Boue Bell 39F

Strangest looking map I've seen in some time

Ides of March. LFG!

@CAPE ... I'm pretty sure we have seen this before this winter. Disturbance at LR plowing thru the SER and the op says yep, that's possible. Your thoughts (besides that its an op at range and dont waste my time)?

Hr³ is slowly backing down positive snow totals for tonight S of i78. Hope to get a dusting at least. Beware the Ides of March?

It looks like if SE PA is going to pickup any accums tonight (south of i78 at least) it would be between 8-10pm. Looks to start as rain or rain with pingers then the heavier convective band rolls thru after 8pm flipping to snow before transitioning to sleet and sleet/rain mix after 10pm ending as plain rain early Tuesday. Beggars can't be choosers....my yard spotlights will be on full lumen tonight. If we can top .25" here tonight it would be the largest snowfall of the season imby. LFG!

So 16 days away. We got this.

That SER is showing more and more, little by little each day on these spaghetti plots....I've been specifically following that feature because that has been our nemesis all year. I'm not saying one way or the other what I think just yet....just watching from a distance.

You said what I was thinking. Tho I've been suggesting we need patience and this would be a March backloaded winter since back in December. Part of me wants to take psu's stance on base state and seasonal trends and say this falls apart too as it approaches. But with psu on board for this period for like the first time all winter I will likely remain open-minded... for now.

Hr³ now has the 2" totals on positive snow depth nap over my house. Went colder again for tonight.

Wrf for tomorrow pm

Hr³ went colder again. Not accounting for any sleet has c-1 or 2" in my area. Biggest event of the season.

I noted that....it is regards to summer fisheries which is something I chart so I had that bookmarked. Thanks for noting. I posted a better graph following that post.

Here this is better I think. Again, I'm not sure we can assume based on this that we are going to be stuck in a negative pdo rut for the next 30 years.

I don't know....you could also look at this as if we've been in a negative phase overall since 2000 give or take. In the grand scheme, 90 years is a pretty small sample size wrt a decadal oscillation, or even smaller sample size as you are suggesting a tri-decadal oscillation. That would only provide roughly 3 measurement periods since 1930. note that is summer pdo I am using^^ not intentionally cherry picking I promise