Ralph Wiggum

STJ pineapple express headed directly into/over an anomalously cold airmass already in place. What could possibly fail here? Don't answer that.

This^^^....not your most usual eloquently worded disco but perfect for layman's terms.

Not every one....that's an absolute statement. There were a few in Dec during the other -NAO/-PNA phase that either took good tracks but rained or ended up squashed under us due to the flow. This setup also has a 50/50 low which subsequent convergent flow *could* actually do more harm than good with a relatively flat longwave pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the country. Of course you have associate trof with the sw but overall things are moving right along. It's all a balancing act. The WAR/SER could help us here...we need some pushback given the lw flow and the dipole NAO-50/50 signal. Otherwise we get the squashed/suppressed/southern solutions. This one can work with the right timing...going to take the right mix of ingredients tho. A blend of the CMC and GFS could work.

A blend of the CMC and GFS would be fabulous. Euro was close.

I follow ya, but the h5 also isn't necessarily supportive of a cutter. And subsequently if there is no NS interaction that wave is going to slide by to the South of us...suppressed. So I could see Southern parts of your sub getting on the board while Northern sections continue to wallow in misery. Let's hope the Euro is onto something and starting to take the lead tho.

Funny, GEFS ind members are improving yet the mean is still N and W. Some really strong cutters on the inds skewing the mean.

I don't buy it, just saying it's stubborn. Also I've been saying since we began tracking this I didn't think a NW or cutter was our way of failing. Always feared a suppressed system wrt my region anyway.

GEFS is stronger with the NW low and lost all of the S and E clustering. Strong signal again for a low to the N and W...at least of the major cities in our regions. Damn this model is stubborn asf. When it gets an idea it really holds onto it.

The lack of Northern stream interaction and lack of cold air is concerning even with a track like the Euro. I suppose it could happen especially at night but we are tightrope walking yet again. Interact jets and you pump heights out ahead and need a much farther S track. No interaction and rely on established cold air which means you need the slp to track farther N. Never easy.

Euro came N for the March 4 system. GEFS much improved as well. Fair amount of upside among ind members:

If the GFS vs others could meet in the middle we would be celebrating.

Not exactly. But the divergence among the camps is comical tbh.

GFS vs CMC snowfall:

Can't win this winter.....either suppressed or cutters

CMC:

CMC looks like the ICON thru 156. 2 camps now....sliders and the GFS.

Monster Midwest blizzard. Boston starts as rain.

132 ridging ahead more evident. Everything is nudged N. Not the run we want.

108 heights higher out ahead again.

Who's doing the GFS pbp? We need a shakeup. Where's Chuck?

A steady and reliable Volkswagen the ICON is not.

ICON suppressed asf

NAVGEM was a dumpster fire

Nor was mine?

I concur! Hear hear!! I mean, cheering them on HAS to be good karma for us right?