Ralph Wiggum

My thoughts are similar wrt the better opportunity a few days later. I mentioned this in a few posts earlier, the GFS is notorious for rushing things usually by 3-5 days. We'll have to see what happens with next weekend before jumping into the calendar flip period.

Again, I think the GFS is rushing the NAO and more likely we are turning the calendar page when we score. Ens means a few days later on the better looks.

I know @CAPE says it's not happening, but this setup is the only way we will score this year with the crud PAC and SER still in tact. Might not end up clean hits, but with the NAO forcing lower heights to squeeze underneath and waves rolling over the SER with tighter wavelengths in-between, I'm growing increasingly confident that one of these 3 or 4 systems being depicted will put down a blanket of white. Backloaded was always the way things would play out given the longwave pattern (Nina). Eta: First threat 6.5 days out. Probably rushed and might not be the one, but the signal is there.

Joe Biden?

You had to go there didn't you?

Nah, not 93. March 58

Is it time for the "It's happening" jawn yet?

We take....weenie 18z gfs run.

I don't hate this look on the ens mean:

This is a look that will work. +PNA building, -NAO, 50/50.....this isn't quite over yet.

GFS has 2 snow events ...the early March system has heck of a potential.

SSWE doing it's dirty work on guidance.

That's the way we score in March with a convoluted flow and HL blocking.

LFG folks! In like a MF lion!

^^^great points

CFS says we FINALLY get some PAC help.........next November. But hey, if this model has any kind of value I would take that as a sign of a changing ENSO state and better look going into next winter. Obviously this is sarcastic post in a way, but that wouldn't be a terrible look headed into next winter. Aleutian low, +PNA, -AO.....sign me up please.

Southern Cali in the line of fire again. Another atmospheric river headed their way with day after day after day of rain. We aren't the only ones in desperate need of a longwave pattern change.

Agreed, this is it. Put all the chips in. After this brief stretch we know where the nao/ser are headed based on past history this 'winter'.

LR ens have the NAO building but like other times this year you can see where this is headed at the end of the LR ens. Strong suspicion those 2 features are going to link up. Some hints of this in the extended. But hey, don't be sad winter is over.....be glad it happened in the first place. Oh wait, um, yeahhh

Certainly has a chance....all depends dent on what the NAO does imo. That's what will drive our cold air source and overcome the -PNA and SER combo we've been stuck with. Ops may be too quick with the pattern change as always. Most realistic shot(s) likely the waning days of Feb thru St Patty's as being depicted on the ens means

This is it fr fr:

Euro has the frozen threat(s) as well alongside either a bit earlier than other guidance. Has a coastal next Wed that just misses us to the south then has a follow up lp in the OV with deep CAD with thump to sleet to slot. Looks loaded beyond this period as well wet NAO...PAC help would be good but we can score in March with that look.

Crazier part is this the most loaded the models have been the entire winter season thus far. Could potentially make up alot of lost ground in a relatively short time frame.

CMC with an historic late season ice/sleet event

12z gfs another weenie run relatively speaking. Think I counted 4 frozen chances.