Ralph Wiggum

Southern Cali in the line of fire again. Another atmospheric river headed their way with day after day after day of rain. We aren't the only ones in desperate need of a longwave pattern change.

Agreed, this is it. Put all the chips in. After this brief stretch we know where the nao/ser are headed based on past history this 'winter'.

LR ens have the NAO building but like other times this year you can see where this is headed at the end of the LR ens. Strong suspicion those 2 features are going to link up. Some hints of this in the extended. But hey, don't be sad winter is over.....be glad it happened in the first place. Oh wait, um, yeahhh

Certainly has a chance....all depends dent on what the NAO does imo. That's what will drive our cold air source and overcome the -PNA and SER combo we've been stuck with. Ops may be too quick with the pattern change as always. Most realistic shot(s) likely the waning days of Feb thru St Patty's as being depicted on the ens means

This is it fr fr:

Euro has the frozen threat(s) as well alongside either a bit earlier than other guidance. Has a coastal next Wed that just misses us to the south then has a follow up lp in the OV with deep CAD with thump to sleet to slot. Looks loaded beyond this period as well wet NAO...PAC help would be good but we can score in March with that look.

Crazier part is this the most loaded the models have been the entire winter season thus far. Could potentially make up alot of lost ground in a relatively short time frame.

CMC with an historic late season ice/sleet event

12z gfs another weenie run relatively speaking. Think I counted 4 frozen chances.

"Patience"

March is the new December. Need to change your mindset. 15 years ago I agree with you....I'm usually getting ready for yard work, fishing, etc. But past decade I've been putting those on hold until after April 7. It isn't just cloud talk, it is a real seasonal change. Not sure the scientific reasoning. Might be a question for a red tagger.

All 3 ens means (gefs, geps, eps) have Scandinavian ridging feeding into the NAO region by the waning days of Feb. If we needed a hail Mary for a late miracle these are the ingredients. Hopefully the big throw can at least travel 40 yards unlike Jalen Hurts' late try at a Hail Mary. Too soon?

But it isn't a flip in 12 hrs. Only the Euro family had a furnace and even those have slowly been stepping down to a colder look. Seeing signs of decent ridging up top with a SPV being displaced underneath. This time of the year those are the ingredients needed for an anomalous cold pattern. But as you know, without the HL ridging we likely torch so it could still go either way. But to see the SWE and the subsequent signals for HL ridging on the ens leaves some hope in an otherwise crap winter. Not backing down off my backloaded winter thoughts. Still see no reason to change this thinking....fairly typical for a Nina. Just hope the SWE doesn't muck things up. If the backloaded Nina couples with a favorable SWE could potentially have an epic last 4 weeks to winter to be perfectly honest. Like playing roulette...could have a pretty big payout........or could just be giving out chips to the house. I'll take my chances with at least a shot at something tho. Can't hit the jackpot without putting in your chips. LFG!

Like playing roulette. Can score a nice jackpot but chances are rather mixed.

This is major!

GFS and the GEPS have been all over this for at least 5 days. Nice to see the Euro trending the right way for a change too.

All 3 major globals have a frozen event in the region between 200-240 hours. 6z GFS was a weenie run with 2 or 3 frozen events thru the run. Not quite over yet. Think the SSWE currently unfolding will have an effect also as we enter the middle portion of March. Some mixed signals that March could be a severely anomalous BN temp month. Buckle up.

While p30 says we are living in igloos. Minor differences.

Said the same thing about Reddick. Didn't even realize he was in the game. Zero pressure most of the night. The tough call at the end didn't cost them the game. Penalty and subsequent Hurts fumble return was bad....could have been 31-7 at the half. But the eagle D was non existent in the 2nd half and Mahomes showed why he is MVP. Hats off to KC.

What a game. I need a sedative

What a game! Don't be sorry. We made the Super Bowl and one of the most exciting ever regardless of outcome.

Should have been 31-7 going into the half. That penalty and fumble return was costlier than many think.

Chuck says that's very warm tho I'm with @CAPE...not a torch but not severe cold either. But if we can get that Scan ridging to extend into the NAO that could become a very cold look really quickly.

Cmon Red...you know the Euro day 10 has been verifying completely opposite what it has shown all season long. Shows cold and we've been warm, shows warm and we've been BN. We got that going for us.