Ralph Wiggum

With March rearing it's head and the pattern actually looking more than favorable, this may actually be just the beginning. Could be a wild 2-3 week finish to a backloaded winter.

PD4?

So 1996-1993=3 thus 2023+3=2026 means 2025-2026 will be HUGE!

This winter in a nutshell:

Plenty of time for this to morph into a cutter or squashed under us.

Mine is an F- so far. I put no time or effort into it tho this year as I only do it for fun. Went against the Nina norm to be silly so had BN temps and AN snow with at least one 10" storm. Could still hit the snow thing with so.e fluke March Hail Mary but I will still consider it a total fail on my part.

That h5 is about as far as you can get from a snow signal for non mountainous areas.

It's Comical the next model run after this thread started was when this threat started to go to pure shit. It was never a high probability but there was a still a glimmer of hope prior at least.

The rgem which is traditionally the coldest biased model: See y'all in March

Bro, this is where it's at. Having a monster backloaded winter and the hits just keep on coming! No let up in sight either with our biggest still yet to come.

I'm not retiring off of it but last 3 calendar years I've finished in the green respectively with 4 digits wrt sportsboom wagering, so I've done ok. And I certainly don't consider myself a sharp by any means. But there's a reason the Eagles are only 1 - 2 point favorites depending on which book you are using. The 'sure thing' doesn't always work out and when the odds look too easy, they probably are. Just as a simplistic example, there was a game this year where the o/u was unusually low....like 30.5 or something. I mean, easy money on the over right? Total ended up like 12 points. As a Philly fan, that 1-2 point Eagles favorite odds scares the piss out of me, ngl.

Hold my beer

Until @Bob Chill jumps on board Im just gunna hangout here on the sidelines.

Tell me you think things are too warm without actually saying you think things are too warm

Too soon

Next window appears to be around PD. Boundary pressing S while waves ride the gradient. Let's go!

So we need a 'hail mary' on Super Bowl Sunday. Seems sort of fitting. At least we still aren't trying to thread needles.

We talkin steps like this?

You know thats exactly how the one threat this winter will unfold whether it turns out to be this one where all models bow to the gfs unlike every other system OR some oddball fluke window in the 2nd half of March. I agree, that's how we end up cashing in this year.

I'm rooting for a hail Mary here like most everyone else. But realistically it would still take some fairly dramatic adjustments on the other guidance (Euro/CMC/ICON) and merely one or 2 minor changes on the gfs to drop this look. Of course I'm skeptical but don't get that confused with pessimistic either. GFS needs support and we've seen the gfs on its own island too many times this season around this range.

Like a mid March storm. Maybe a precursor to the tail end of winter anyway.

In a winter where even the most favorable setups have failed we are now relying on a most unorthodox setup to deliver the goods. I'll probably observe cautiously from the sidelines for now but if we get more than 1 model on board and get this under 72 hrs I might get interested. This is a pretty delicate setup, but I'm sure you already know this.

Models are headed the wrong way tho. Look upstairs and 850, not just the surface. This is almost totally rate dependent and we don't do complicated rate dependent very well. A chance, but slim.

The SSWE and potential SPV split look has held....so March could still throw us a fluke.

That's a crazy future's bet. Talk about long range! That's for March 26th. That's not even giving an edge....literally a 50/50 at this range. With that said take the +odds.