Ralph Wiggum

Link or it didn't happen Eta: nevermind, found it. Wow, I'm moving out to Cali which is obviously the new snow capital of the US: "The precipitation totals for the majority of the south Santa Barbara coast, Ventura, and Los Angeles coasts/valleys will be in the 2-4 inch category. Low snow levels will mean that this could be the largest amount of 24-48 hour snowfall seen in decades (likely rivaling the 1989 storm) for our Ventura and Los Angeles County mountains. Depending on the snow-line, rainfall in the foothills will be from 4-6 inches, but the mountains above 4000 ft could see upwards of 2-5 FEET of snow with isolated amounts to 7 feet at higher elevations. Snowfall of this rate and amount could lead to damage to structures and trees with an immense threat of avalanches, especially in the eastern San Gabriel Mountains by Saturday."

Triple phaser incoming. But you know as well as I do that the trof will remain buried on the West Coast and the PNA ridge attempting to mozy Eastward will fail.

I'm seeing this too and was pretty serious with my post. Patience folks.

Beware the Ides of March.

BTW I went against your bold pick and against my heart and took KC on the moneyline. Thinking I should do that with your March 8 outlook as well. Thanks for the hot takes.

Gulf Stream is alive and well. If anything it is even displaced E based on historical configuration. The map posted prior that you are referencing are anomalies. Here are current sst for the N Atl and you can clearly see the Gulf Stream:

SER pancake'd

April Fools storm 2023?

Yep, buckle up!

It's crazy to think we are still in snow climo. You would think it's mid April the way the winter has been and the recent tease of 70s. Only takes one tiny window over the next 4 weeks to remind ppl that nature can flip on a dime.

And look at that stout SER about to link up with the retrograding NAO. I'm afraid your March 8 period may be in trouble. I hope you nail it tho man.

Squashed and sheared I assume?

Doctor No time. Hit us with some winning pbp Randy!

Someone will pop on and say that is t a true block just a strong ridge which does us no good.

Yet the CMC and both ens increase the chances. So if you want to buy the gfs op from run to run, go for it.

CMC is snow on mix on Rain on snow

Still think that NAO never fully stops retrograding from Scandinavia and eventually links up with the SER in a full lat ridge feature. I think our window is Feb 25-March 6 though Chuck claims the best window actually follows as the full lat ridge breaks and reloads up top after the 8th. What are your thoughts on the NAO/SER hookup?

Euro has the same signal just slightly farther to our South. Active period coming.

GFS is a crusher. 1-2' verbatim. Hope you all have buckled up and been patient. It's go time.

Couple of discrete threats seem to be popping up. Probably going to want to start threads to avoid any confusion here

It's happening, or still too soon?

Base state?

Meh Eta: if that idea holds, look out

GFS an 12z has a couple snow->mix threats (pretty common thump to slop for the time of year). I did however get a kick out of the historic ice storm is shows around 330. Has a monster NAO block this run. If that idea is anywhere close to verifying, all bets are off. Anything can happen.