Ralph Wiggum

Not looking for a debate, but I've done a little reading on the PDO....not a scholar on the subject by any means. I'm genuinely curious where you are seeing data suggesting we are entering a -pdo for the next 3 decades? Or am I misinterpreting what you said as these next 30 years will feature a predominent shit pac base state? I'm not following the 30 years of futility thing or what it is in reference to?

Sparse Pacific data. Cmon, I know you've read the weenie handbook before. Remember? System goes to hell 5-6 days out then trends back better at 3 day leads.

I'll be 80 years old...wonder if there's a market for wheelchair mounted sleds, tubes, or skis?

@Always in Zugzwang our van has had a couple of minor issues....hope you were all buckled up!

Him and Samwise are back in the Shire, they threw in the towel.

Can you dub this one the Swiffer Storm?

You've been preparing ppl since October tho with your essays and journal notes. Nobody is surprised.

GFS is undoubtedly the new King

5 days out and set in stone? Based on the euro? Really?

Iirc from past experience, S and E corrections tend to occur more often when developing blocking up top is either being modeled too weak or incorrectly wrt timing (too slow developing on guidance vs reality). I think this could be one of those times where S and E corrections have increased possibility. Now during Archambault events where blocking is waning or the NAO is relaxing, we tend to see the N and W corrections more frequently. Again, my thinking may be wrong but this is how I remember it from my experiences.

GEPS ticked S for 3/4....better look up top wrt vort lobe moving SE providing better confluence.

GEFS ind members actually improved a fair amount for the area. Still has it's share of op looking members. Mean snowfall also ticked up vs last 2 runs.

Agreed. And it's 5 days out so there is actually time.

While there is truth that guidance trends N most of the time, that is never an absolute....especially with blocking building up top. If there was one that could reverse trends in a couple days, this is the one imho. Not a warm fuzzy feeling attm but optimistic that we wont see N ticks every single run from now thru Friday. I expect some dramatic changes in one form or another thru Wednesday at least.

0z vs 12z Check out the hp

Nice...0z vs 12z

Hmmm, coastal NC weakness. Miller B-ish Eta: CAD signal now

Stronger hp on the cmc, slightly better positioning. LP strength may mitigate that tho. Still close and not a cave to gfs imo.

Could be but at h5 it is holding that lobe back over SE Canada which may aid confluence...doesn't zip it thru like gfs

CMC standing it's ground thru 120

GFS for late week is either leading the way or on an island by itself. Realistically the final answer likely lies between the GFS and Euro....which has also ticked N last 2 runs.

Big difference with the stream separation around Montana. Euro also keeps that vort near Maine helping confluence a tiny bit. Gfs zips it into the 50/50

On to the CMC....

Yep. After 108 there was less separation between NS and the Southern vort. Went to shit after 108.