Ralph Wiggum

Ffs this better not disrupt our block and potential window for further events.

I thought it took 24 hours to digest and take a shit or something like that?

Exactly. Some pros....-ao, west based nao blocking, decent 50/50 signal. Cons....lack of antecedent cold air, mid March always seemed tough to get Miller b's to trend southward. Still favors interior, elevations, and farther N. For now anyway. Somewhat encouraging signs today tho suggesting this isn't etched in stone yet.

Here's an op for ya then...JMA is a bit borderline with temps to start but pulls off a capture...big storm signal. Still favors interior and elevations but not etched in stone yet. This is a different pattern up top.

EPS is a Miller b forming off the VA coast. So the op says nope, I'm still dancing on my own.

I would say it was a blip run if the CMC didn't look a little bit similar

Pepperidge Farms remembers

Unblockiest blocking by a h5 block ever . One step forward, 2 steps back. Wait for ens.

So safe to say the gfs and euro will likely meet in the middle when all is said and done....yet again? Or we just can't know?

GFS is all on its own with next week. Even it's ensembles have a potential mecs with a redeveloping Miller b off the obx. Until other guidance goes towards the gfs there is still a decent chance. Dont give up hope yet.

This is the thing. Are we willing this into a 35 and cold pouring rain or can we somehow do nighttime upper 20s/low 30s and heavy snow rates? Tbd..

But will it be enough? The question on everyone's mind attm

But even if the gfs goes to the others, it still likely isn't enough....for the lowlands anyway.

This was a fairly big shift on the GEPS mean at 0z vs 12z yesterday. Still have lp indicated near the GL but the redevelopment is happening quicker and farther S due to the stronger 50/50 and subsequent confluence:

Pretty much agree with all of this. Mud (supposed to say mid but this typo was appropriate so leaving it) March takes some rare and near perfect conditions for the lowlands, especially the farther S in lat you go. With that said, the 6z gfs op made some slight improvements but not nearly enough to warrant much enthusiasm. However, the oz geps did trend better and has a stronger CAD signal with a slightly better positioned mean surface low depiction, so that is worth noting. And of course the Euro at 0z. If we were gonna pull off some sort of miracle, today's runs are where it will be. Need pretty significant changes, not sure baby steps will get us to the promised land. Interior elevations and N and W....game on.

You can see the 6z gfs already made some pretty significant changes wrt not burying energy deep in the base of the trof out in the southwest but rather rotating it NE along the trof and trying to extend/push it east.

CMC trying to setup the Ides of March storm at h5 GFS looks interesting as well. Still have a 10-day window...maybe shaving 1 or 2 days off the front of that soon.

GFS wants to try and do something after 216 but thermals are destroyed so nah.

CMC at least gives some light reacharound err wraparound love.

Not as bad yet but clearly headed that direction.

CMC is better than gfs but not sure it will get er done.

Storm is stuck under the block out West.

The changes on the gfs at 156 vs last 4 runs back to 0z are just head scratching

Starting to look like the N Plains is the place to be for the first phase of pattern change.

Congrats 4 corners?