Just my quick thoughts....we rarely ever get a bombing Miller B to develop far enough S or fast enough to significantly impact us except for N of I78. I can count on 1 hand the number of times over the last 25 years these have worked out. These systems are the absolute epitome of Lucy and the football and exactly the reason we came up with that analogy over the years. I'm obviously keeping an eye on it but we are into mid March now and spring is now showing up on guidance. Best to keep expectations nil and hope for the best.
This is advertised across the board. Active stj and diving njs. Timing differences keep models from keying on which date. Growing fairly confident something big pops next week that impacts both of our subforums in a positive way.
So the weekends storm....on the GFs remember when the primary went into S C Canada a couple days back? Now it is in Pitt. Has been coming S every run. Couple more ticks and the thing slides under and we get a legit system.
They addressed that with the upgrade last year thus the bump in the Euros verification scores. Doesn't make this run right. I don't think it is. But the pattern has potential for a decent late season storm between the 10th and 20th still. Doubt it plays out like the Euro verbatim and I wouldn't put all my chips on a major event either.....but this time of year it usually ends up as all or nothing. We'll see how this 10 day period plays out. Right now many are overlooking that we are backing into some snow this weekend. Blocking does funny things.
Oh I wasn't saying the enso state was going to have any impacts this month per se. I do think the cooler ssts have helped us get the mjo progression into a more favorable phase at least. Hopefully we don't enter some 97-98 super Nino in fall