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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    And we patiently await the 12z models. Pretty decent pattern period coming up between the 10th and 20th. Seasonal history says move on, other data suggests just hanging tight. Retrograding NAO block, stj involvement, 50/50 low, MJO amplified phase 8->1, vorticity rolling underneath the block...what could go wrong?
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Bro...
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    GEPS didn't waiver and then there's the eps. GFS family still seems to be playing catchup with this system.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Big ticket changes all around wrt next weekends potential. GFS trended towards the euro (which destroys part of this forum)...still an outlier (the gfs). Been over a year since we actually had guidance begin to trend favorably at this ra3nhe like we saw at 0z). Thats what happens with massive nao blocking and mjo 8-1 phase. Here is the eps borrowed from the Mid Atl forum originally borrowed from the NE forum:
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Fyp
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    The good old day 9-10 threat Yeah, this morphed into something completely different now in just under like 36 hours. Somethings gotta give during this pattern one would think. If it doesnt, @psuhoffman should just send his thesis off to the AMS and publish his book/journal.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Inverted trof over gom at 240 on cmc with a big blob of fresh hp moving into midwest. Just needed the match to light the fuse.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC just misses a phase towards the end of run with a followup. A few minor timing adjustments and boom.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    CMC....redevelopment idea. Primary destroys thermals still and hp/CAD almost nil:
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Personally don't think the primary gets that far N. No other model is even close to that. GFS is playing catchup this time around.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Undecided on whether to close it off and occlude it near MN under the block with a strung out cold fropa or redevelop off Hatteras miller b style. Flip a coin.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Definitely some intense confluence affecting it as it approached. No way guidance is handling all those pieces precisely attm.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Just an odd depiction of a redeveloping low what, like 800 miles from primary? As unclean as you would see under such a strong block. Run definitely raises an eyebrow regardless of what surface says verbatim.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Not sure if this will be the end game or just a shift towards something else Miller b ish as the days go on. Doubt the maps would look this sloppy. Euro at 0z last night may have had the right idea?
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Handoff and overall surface is messy but redeveloping low near OBX / Hatteras at 168. Thermals are torched tho.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    With the strength of that block the slp is going to be forced to redevelop. This should be interesting at the very least and draw some folks back in.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Most likely. But pretty big jump towards the better 6-7 days out still
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Run of the mill differences out West Total cave:
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Surface still looks like shit but the slp is trying its damnedest to work its way east under the block and not into the NPlains at least
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    Randy gets his vertical egg as opposed to horizontal egg this run. Still not sure how this affects the end game but it's something.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    Just a minor change early:
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    Ffs the gfs finally looks like it might be caving
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Gfs also trended much farther s and has snow in the region tuesday.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON snows on part of the region as early as Tuesday am.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    You can see the effects of the waning Nina....if only this were December headed into the winter. We'll have plenty more chances in the years to follow I'm sure. I'm not part of the 'it will likely never snow again' crew.
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