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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Last year might have been too much of a good thing. I remember that mega NAO block. The -SD that kept appearing on the ens means didn't have 'reds in the right spots' ....we had magenta blob all across the NAO region. Most of the forum thought we couldn't fail with those looks up top. All that yielded was an avocado +SD PV forced under that block which overwhelmed the pattern. The -PNA didn't help either.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    Does PSU meet the 1" snowfall criteria there? Can't quite read it
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    PAC>ATL.....but we do finally have some PAC help early.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    And we've also had our fair share of epic Atlantic looks and even EPO help in recent years with zilch to show for it due mostly to a muted or raging -PNA. A huge part of our run of poor luck is the lack of a good PNA in the the PAC. So far this early in the season we are seeing signals of a decent PAC side which we definitely could use. So the LR outlooks have that going on which could be the game changer this winter.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Not hating the GEFS trend for the Dec 5-7 period. WB NAO, increasing heights PNA region, and strong vorticity moving E out of the Rockies and maybe underneath the region.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Well, we all know digital snow doesn't amount to jack squat. But this season already has a vastly different look wrt the longwave pattern and how systems are reacting along the coastline than the past several. Weeklies and lr ens all pointing to a very favorable look towards mid-Dec fwiw. Can't ask for more before mid Dec than that. Better than a blinds-shutter look for sure.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Nice wintry event popping up on the 12z gfs in the LR (Dec 5).
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    Happy Thanksgiving to all my Southern friends here!
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Looks exactly where last year left off (SW trof, flat ser, textook nao blocking) . Maybe hangover Nina effect?
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Not a single person talking about the return of the Dec 5 snow on the 12z gfs for parts of the region? Funny to see digital snow on that date...maybe a good omen for winter even if a 384hr prog doesnt verify.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    Regardless I've barely needed to use it which is nice.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Just some mixed signals on the guaranteed cold availability for PSUs first 1" of snow. Other than that, ssdd...Ji canceled winter and Chuck is talking oscillation indices.
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Enjoying the late start on heating bill season personally.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    That was my point there is factual data that supports your theory. I'm really vested in seeing if your area can cash in sooner than later.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Quite contraire mi amigo....there is no joke therein. This is pretty serious stuff.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    We just need PSU to get his 1" by Dec 1 and we are gravy baby.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    There's a joke in there somewhere I think
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    What 'should' historically be different this season (Nino) vs last few (Nina) these followup waves won't get shredded to smithereens every time. Have a good feeling the shred factory is not going to be our biggest problem this season. Definitely not hating the advertised longwave signals moving forward.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    -epo/+pna ftmfw....pna will almost always trump a really good Atlantic side. The look out west is of utmost importance. Nice disco gents.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    I don't see any avocados there, so this checks out.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    The old 'dont get caught up too far in the extended range as guidance is struggling within 10 days' thing.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep, not even Nov 15 and the old logbook has made the appearance
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Like I said, a super eruption. @ravensrule
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    If Iceland ends up with a super 'cano all bets are off.
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