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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
My Daffodil bed has most bulbs sprouting 1/4" or so out of the soil. -
The WAR is a trademark of a Nino yes? I recall 2015 we fought that thing all season. Most places did end up with the 1 big January storm though. Eta: not trying to be a downer of a post just discussing the pattern. With that said, there is a nice trof there building into the Aleutians.
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I do not. However, Nina->Nino lag/hangover can sometimes take longer to shake than we would like. Just thought those looks were incredibly similar outside of the Scan ridge building in which many of us here including myself are hoping for ie favorable AO/NAO looks which we need in a Nino. The Pac should work itself out....December Ninos are always iffy which is why a couple weeks ago I mentioned we need to be patient thru Dec because it might take some time to get there.
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^^Scandinavian Ridge building ftw ?
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Vs eps and geps means from 0z...
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Only 16 days out
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Need a vomit emoji
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Need to hope we meet in the middle and not too much stj either. We are always looking for balance which is so hard to get. I think we get there.
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"Delayed but not denied"
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That dang sw trof blech....still gives me the shakes just seeing that map.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
The Scandinavian ridge builds in the LR....that's a great omen for the AO/NAO as we roll later into the month. -
@psuhoffman I don't believe received his 1" of snow by Dec 1
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Can someone please start a thread?
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The trof N of the Hawaiian Islands is a nice feature that had been lacking in recent years. Hints of an Aleutian low showing up.
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Mild Dec? I'm sorry, I'm not really seeing it. Any 'warmth' looks muted and transient at best thru 1st half of Dec. Cold enough for snow? Perhaps we sneak our way into something early, but we are still really premature in the season and outside of good climo for many. Becoming increasingly confident of a very active pattern coming and if these arctic intrusions are foreshadowing what's to come could be a fun ride.
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
At work in Telford....squall -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Flurries. 32F -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yes! Even the 'big December warmup' that is common among Nino analogs looks muted at best. We should have a fair amount of chances this winter. -
E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Mesos hinting at some scattered snow squalls tomorrow. Going to feel wintry for sure with highs in the mid 30s and blustery. Wednesday continued cold with same highs. -
There have been years we waited until Feb and still exceeded avg snowfall. I don't think anyone is backpeddaling or canceling...well, maybe Ji. I was simply noting that based on some analogs we are going to have to be patient and shouldn't be getting hopes up for wall to wall snow events from Dec 1-April. Probably setting up for a letdown if ppl are expecting that. We can hope of course but should temper expectations. Many red taggers echo this and have suggested their analog years were mostly backloaded, so there's that.
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Definitely going to require alot of patience. Could strike out a few times and incur meltdowns of epic proportions. May be one of those seasons we wait til Jan into Feb which could fit alot of the backloaded analog seasons. Hopefully we don't wait that long. The panic room will be packed if that's the case.
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I'm quite sure someone will find something. But yeah, about as good as we could hope for early Dec. No issues here.