Ralph Wiggum

Epic -nao.

Your punt thru Jan 22 may very well end up being right but for all the wrong reasons...so who knows. There are 3 threats I noted showing up the first 10 days of Jan. Yes, only threats....we need verification to mean a damn thing. Thereafter there are strengthening signals the NAO goes neg which is likely the final ingredient to get thing really cranking for us. Don't sleep on the 1st half of January tho.

I'm not doubting your 40+ years of expertise. I'm doubting your methods for punting thru week 3 of January. Not sure how reliable snowcover in Greenbay is in forecasting the LR. Gfs and Euro are each starting to light up with threats btw.

3 distinct threats on the ops and ensembles between Jan 1 and Jan 10 with one of the best model runs I've seen in years and you punted until after MLK day? Cmon old head.

Euro has the Jan 1 system....more progressive look headed off the SE coast. CMC is flat and disheveled.

Probably the best look we've seen yet for the Jan 1 window. Still has some adjustments to make if we want it to work but that's a look:

Hmm, went from happy smiley face H5 maps to confused or disinterested emoji face.

A couple Ens members have legit hits with several members having snow TV at least.

I saw that...BL torched. You would still think flakes somewhere in E PA even if white rain. Thicknesses are like 526 ffs.

If that run were extended it would have been a pants tent sorta thing thru the 2nd week of Jan. That's a more than serviceable pattern. Waiting on the ens means.

Only an op but mirrors my thoughts:

Just posted in my home sub. I mean, I know the reason for lack of white being the BL as you also noted....but sucks to see such a good track and another wasted opportunity. We'll get there....eventually. We will.

December 29 and this is where we are? What does it take anymore?

I too am in the minority. Give me any frozen and I am happy. Heck, even a good sleet storm or a fzra event. I think it's the 'not the norm' with these things that fuels my passion for the hobby.

If we are being realistic, this period has been suggesting more of a southern track for our stj energies. TPV positioning near Baffin downstream of the EPO ridge will help direct the cold, but this may be a real test of our Nino. In the recent Nina episodes, these similar looks yielded an either suppressed track or 'shred factory' (I think that became the catch phrase iirc) that sheared our southern storms. In any event, if I were a betting man, my money leans towards South of 40 (at the very least) being favored for something. Couple other questions tho....are these looks even correct and will they hold for this period? And then what happens when it (epo ridge/tpv position and cold pressing flow underneath) relaxes? Do we go over to midwest lows/cutters? Guess we wait and see.

Realizing it wasn't a response to Panic per se bit still strange to see a @Bob Chill post in the panic room.

Gotta agree with PSU here...if you're big dog hunting then we are waiting for a while. The tpv setting up (ens means) over Baffin Bay downstream of the epo ridge...all that spells are fast moving systems embedded in the flow without something in the Atlantic to halt the progression. Good for some overunning chances if you like those relative quick hitters but there really isn't anything I'm seeing to slow things down too much. Which might be a blessing in disguise until the cold air source gets established more. Tight wound up systems won't do us any good for now as has been discussed ad neaseum already.

Nice tpv setting up in the west nao slot on the ens means.

Very 1997ish so far.

All those gorgeous looks degraded yet again overnight. Not horrible but the ens means backing off somewhat. Hopefully not another head fake/can kick.

I saw an enso super extended product that has a sustained Nina mid 2024 thru 2027...so we could be in serious trouble if we don't cash in during this Nino.

Happy Winter Solstice! Longer days from here til June. @ChescoWxhow many weeks til spring training??

@stormtracker...we need you

That split flow with vorts sliding under the epo!!!....need the homer simpson drool pic!!

Bro....chill