Ralph Wiggum

That was so close at h5, so close. GFS roulette Randy....you live to see another run.

There are still 3 legit threats popping up first 10 days of January. Dont tell Albedoman...he already punted thru the 22nd.

Merry Christmas!

You and me both my fellow alum

Merry Christmas to all my friends to the South. And Merry 12z gfs!

Damn, St Bernardus clouding my reading. I first read your last sentence as "Now I am slightly aroused".

We simply just can't know

Someone was talking last night here about how you can't just look at an h5 map blues and reds and assume what the relative weather is going to be. Case in point wrt 6z gfs....looked at h5 and 500v (almost always look here first) and assumed a relative quiet run post Jan 4. However, one of the better fantasy threat systems of the lr shows up on the surface maps after the 6th especially wrt this subforum.

My tip would have been to not eat yellow snow....but then again it doesn't snow anymore so that wouldn't have been a valid tip.

Well, the Jan 1 threat might be too early BUT all ens are honking strong for Jan 5-7. Then a followup threat possible. But that window I noted is starting to gain traction across guidance.

Epic -nao.

Your punt thru Jan 22 may very well end up being right but for all the wrong reasons...so who knows. There are 3 threats I noted showing up the first 10 days of Jan. Yes, only threats....we need verification to mean a damn thing. Thereafter there are strengthening signals the NAO goes neg which is likely the final ingredient to get thing really cranking for us. Don't sleep on the 1st half of January tho.

I'm not doubting your 40+ years of expertise. I'm doubting your methods for punting thru week 3 of January. Not sure how reliable snowcover in Greenbay is in forecasting the LR. Gfs and Euro are each starting to light up with threats btw.

3 distinct threats on the ops and ensembles between Jan 1 and Jan 10 with one of the best model runs I've seen in years and you punted until after MLK day? Cmon old head.

Euro has the Jan 1 system....more progressive look headed off the SE coast. CMC is flat and disheveled.

Probably the best look we've seen yet for the Jan 1 window. Still has some adjustments to make if we want it to work but that's a look:

Hmm, went from happy smiley face H5 maps to confused or disinterested emoji face.

A couple Ens members have legit hits with several members having snow TV at least.

I saw that...BL torched. You would still think flakes somewhere in E PA even if white rain. Thicknesses are like 526 ffs.

If that run were extended it would have been a pants tent sorta thing thru the 2nd week of Jan. That's a more than serviceable pattern. Waiting on the ens means.

Only an op but mirrors my thoughts:

Just posted in my home sub. I mean, I know the reason for lack of white being the BL as you also noted....but sucks to see such a good track and another wasted opportunity. We'll get there....eventually. We will.

December 29 and this is where we are? What does it take anymore?

I too am in the minority. Give me any frozen and I am happy. Heck, even a good sleet storm or a fzra event. I think it's the 'not the norm' with these things that fuels my passion for the hobby.

If we are being realistic, this period has been suggesting more of a southern track for our stj energies. TPV positioning near Baffin downstream of the EPO ridge will help direct the cold, but this may be a real test of our Nino. In the recent Nina episodes, these similar looks yielded an either suppressed track or 'shred factory' (I think that became the catch phrase iirc) that sheared our southern storms. In any event, if I were a betting man, my money leans towards South of 40 (at the very least) being favored for something. Couple other questions tho....are these looks even correct and will they hold for this period? And then what happens when it (epo ridge/tpv position and cold pressing flow underneath) relaxes? Do we go over to midwest lows/cutters? Guess we wait and see.