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Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    You have to understand...that is basically Nino in a nutshell. Rarely is there sustained cold. Exceptions? Yes. I made a note of this the other day...during alot of Ninos we seem to get brief windows of opportunity sandwiched between seasonal/AN stuff. Siberia being cut off is pretty common tbh.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    When those features present themselves the stj probably shuts off. Hopefully not, but that's Murphys Law for our region. I'll see myself out now....
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    Thing I've learned over the past several seasons....a good PAC can overcome a meh Atlantic. And more often than not a good Atl with a crud PAC does us no good. There are exceptions but I almost always look to the PAC side first before seeing what the Atl is doing.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    93 was a triple phase. Polar jet doesn't phase in until way too late. Close but no cigar this time.
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Finally....a very discrete wave showing up in the flow around the 23rd. Weak and to our S for now but could provide some flakes. Been showing up on a few runs now anyway. Larger window opening up on the ens the last week of Dec as the PAC side amplifies with a transient +PNA and -EPO ridge and a vigorous shortwave slides across the SE. Op gfs hinting at something also.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    Great! The winky mcwinkerson pattern. That's usually a decent performer iirc.
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    Ens means and weeklies look active with the stj but sorta displaced south with the storm track following the southern route then off the coast. N stream to our N mostly aside for one brief stretch. Not sure I agree but that's what the LR stuff is showing attm. Here's a sample first week January. Beautiful +NAO, N stream along Canadian border, stj displaced S. PAC changes for the good after this but still gonna take a bit before we get cold air sources re-established let alone directed into the States. And I thought 'patience' was our buzz phrase LAST year. We will get there eventually this season.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    My positives to a +NAO Nino period... -lower than normal heating bills -not being up til 3am tracking wintry weather -no need to spend time bundling in layers before going outside -periodic opening of windows for fresh air -no constant static electricity every time I touch something -dinners outside on the deck -fishing
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    My daffodils are coming along nicely
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Yep I eta to my post right after. Just an odd look.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    Wth is the 6z gfs doing on Christmas eve? big old retrograding Atlantic low.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    So we just needed PSU to come in and voice a plethora of 'concerns' he is seeing in the Long Range in order to get the LR to cooperate in our favor? Noted.
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    Boxing Day?
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Ninja'd lol
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    Crazy, past couple years we hunt unicorn patterns on the weeklies and lr ens that had epic looks and they didn't materialize. This year the same products show meh and they probably verify. Never seems to work the other way for the better.
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Absolutely uncanny resemblance to that jan-feb 1973 climo chart posted a couple hours ago in this thread.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    Which is usually what we deal with during Ninos. Nino patterns aren't traditionally arctic bitter vodka cold. Take Jan 2016 for example....yes it was seasonal leading in but that storm we essentially sandwiched in between crud. It was in the 50s here the next day. I made a comment about 'windows' but that is real....we aren't going to deal with wall to wall cold and well-times storms. Thus is the Nino majority of the time.
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    Gotta start somewhere so we take. Hope the pac retract holds as we move closer.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    Still think we r struggling with a cold air source with this jet configuration. The central Canada ridge you noted is actually not helping matters much.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    I noticed that too with the Aleutian low being progged to move into good position then getting adjusted into the GOA on the ens means. What's causing this besides energy feeding in and causing deepening/wobble? PAC jet mostly responsible?
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    It would be a good study to see how recent-year Nino jet extension tendencies compare to similar enso episodes from past climatology. Ie, are recent Ninos more persistent and stronger with the extension than the past? Are we seeing less of a likelihood to see pac jet retraction in a Nino due to certain climate conditions that may have changed? Genuinely curious.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    You got 3" in Doylestown? I'm going off your location.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    I think my point was that's where we r at 2 weeks out and that's our best look....but we can still sneak something in during small windows and to hang in as just after this things look to improve markedly.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    If we are hunting good patterns on the super LR ens then the GEPS is your model for the day. The CFS weeklies are really nice late Dec into prime climo as well. Dec isn't a snow month right? But it just stopped snowing today for many and I've seen my 5th flakes of the season up here already so these are all good signs moving ahead.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    I wouldn't write Dec off completely. I'm not seeing any wall to wall torch. The 'sustained' look isn't the greatest but there appear to be some windows of opportunity peppered into this month. This might be one of those seasons we generally have a not so great pattern then when the transient good patterns move thru we score. Really have little doubt as we enter prime climo that we cash in several times. Hang in.
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