Ralph Wiggum

Shit, I dunno about warming my heart but that look really warms my loins!!

Droolworthy setup. Nice pattern developing at least towards end of Dec early Jan.

Love the h5 smiley face pattern. Keeps weenies positive and hopeful.

Has anyone here officially declared "winter cancel" yet? Genuinely curious.

Ji is simping these days. His rizz game ain't what it once was.

Now you're talkin!!!

Signal still there for some type of storm Dec 27-Jan 1. Good luck trying to figure it out before Monday. Posting the GFS and Euro 500mb charts to show the complexity of the situation. Vorts spinning and diving all over the country each interaction having a different influence in how the storm plays out. I know it's been said already there isn't a ton of cold to work with prior as this seems to trigger the pattern changes we are seeing in the LR. And others also noted the storms at the start of a pattern change usually aren't 'the one'. Still think this bears close watching as a dynamic event can yield interesting results. Does anyone know our track record wrt 'complicated'?

Word of caution...don't use an ens means to base temps for precip types verbatim. One or 2 mega warm members can skew that severely.

Looks....amazing. We will have flush hits in Jan if those looks verify. Of this I have little doubt. I have nothing to add to @CAPE analysis he covered all bases.

Forcing should line up to match enso and pdo phase as well....probably why we are seeing better placement of the Aleutian low. MJO headed the right way to match. Things are falling into place rather nicely going forward.

Yep,cost me the last leg of my parlay. Luckily that was gravy on the day going in to the SNF game. Would have been nice tho.

Believe it or not I enjoy the Ravens. But I am with you on this 100%

GEFS isn't bad at all. Keep expectations in-check....that's all. And don't be angry if the epic eps look doesn't play out verbatim. Sheeeesh.

I got the Jags +3.5 tonight too btw. You're welcome.

Hasn't the GEFS schooled the EPS wrt the LR last 3 or 4 years? Let's cool our collective jets. Yes, the EPS is a unicorn look. Just.....just let's get closer and get the GEFS on board or some support. BTW, I'm all in for Jan-Feb. Have been since Nov and nothing I see can convince me otherwise attm.

My exact thoughts when I looked at the eps especially. Textbook what we would want to see without major cold around to tap into. Hopefully this week's 2 big lw systems (today/tomorrow and then the one offshore) can rob the atmosphere of some energy for the wrapped up stuff for a little bit.

0z GEPS was also very nice for the same period. I agree with @WxUSAFand @Bob Chill respectively....either a snow to rain situation if a tighter storm or we cash in with a pos/neutral tilt trof and wave sliding across ala the EPS. Its a nice window to wind out the year and ring in the new.

Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time.

Some guidance still hinting at that discrete marginal opportunity on Dec 23 I mentioned a couple of days ago. Chances are low, maybe we get some white rain or mood flakes before the holiday...that would be a win for me in a Nino December. Looking farther ahead, big time pattern changes happening last week of the month. Atlantic side improving and -epo ridge establishing itself on the PAC side to help with a cold air source finally. Stj very active and undecutting a flat PNA ridge. Looks are much improved headed into late month. Window for a system still showing around the 28-30th as mentioned before.

You would think being around as long as I have I would read the legend on these maps before drooling. I'm rushing these looks faster than guidance rushes pattern changes these days.

Yepper....im headed to the beer distributor. Oh, you meant wrt the weather. Yeah, that too.

^^THAT is the look I want to see on the PAC side. -epo, split flow out west, stj undercutting a neutral/weak +pna. Roll that forward 3-6 days and BANG!

That little discrete wave has been showing up for a few days. Maybe some mood flakes +.