Ralph Wiggum

PSU has alot of storms....including the potential one next week. Can we start numbering them like the PD storms to avoid confusion?

The cool thing about the usual 10 day Euro threats we see almost every run, they are moving up closer in time and replaced with another day 10 threat moving up etc. Cool cycle to have finally. We (DC subforum region primarily) need to get the early week system to produce and break the ice.

Overunning almost always ends up coming N. Many of us are trying to gauge how much the rex block will play a role in precip shield trajectory and latitudinal advancement.

We should start getting a concensus by 12z tomorrow imho. GFS is just catching up to other guidance. Looks like a wave slides across Sunday night/Monday reinforcing the cold air (seasonably cold which would work). Then we get a strung out overunning event Monday PM-late Tuesday. Best band being modeled around Baltimore latitude right now in general but overunning traditionally ends up farther N than modeled....tho with such a strong block *maybe* that fights off too much of a N trend? Just glad we are in prime climo and tracking. Patience was wearing thin for many with the HL blocking finally being established. Should be more chances for the 10 days following as well.

Ens means at overnight continued to slowly improve for early next week for parts of this region with most notable changes being ticks N with precip and increased overall amount. Southern portions of the region still walking a fine line on temps but immediate PHL on N and W continue to show colder 850s pressing S each run trying to fight off any surging warmth. Attached is the GEPS trend in precip....6z GEFS was just rolling and not quite available yet:

Yep, and that will change and shift around 22 more times between now and Tuesday. It's a baby step up from a thread-the-needle event.

GFS can't even get a handle on Mon-Tues. Im not sure I put much stock in what it shows 180hrs+ out. However if you loop the last 3 runs valid 6z Thurs Jan 28 you can see it keeps moving N with the slp and precip shield. Soooo yeah. Eta: crap didn't see the other post showing the same.....

Too far out to be in the bullseye. I get more nervous jackpotting at 6+ days than I do with crud solutions at 84 hrs but with wiggle room. Get this within 60 hrs and we r gold....maybe. This one doesn't have alot of wiggle room for a flush snow hit, but nice to see this as a potential. On to 0z. Eta: 18z GEFS mean showed slight improvement wrt total precip amts, 2m temps, and general track.

EPS continue to slowly improve for our region. In addition the signal for the period Jan 28-Feb7 continues to improve and show more potential.

That was a good storm iirc

Wish there was a love emoji.....this is awesome on many levels!

Euro is cold at the surface....26F here during the height of the event 850s are -2. There is a tight gradient just south tho around the DE border. 850s are warm to the South....scary warm. A good snow hit for some here and a very icy hit for others.

What is the precip type in DC at 126?

That's a strong ass primary trying to drive into that block. Banana high over top of it at the surface .

Yep, going to be N. Still 6 days out.

Lots of NS. Nada good?

The 0z op couldn't get much farther S. I expect it to follow the 6z eps N.

Gradient patterns will do that. Like PSU has been saying, where's the cold tho? In any normal winter the gradient with that look would be 60s to the South and upper single digits/teens not too far N.

Well it hardly drops any precip soooo

GFS is a joke. Flopping every which way every run. Even the GEFS ar 6z were going toward the euro. I bet the 12z GEFS won't support the op.

Squall ripping thru here. Windblown sideways stuff. 36F

Don't worry about the ops just yet dude. Another couple of days. The EPS ticked N again and we are currently still in a good spot on those. GEFS adjusting towards the EPS this AM. Steady as she goes. What I do like is we aren't in the bullseye yet...has been wobbling around N....then S towards DC yesterday....and so far this AM seems to be inching back N on the ens means towards our area. I dont dislike this trend at all right now.

They cancelled winter back in October, even before Ji normally does.

Seems like its the snow Capitol

Flurries in Ivyland. 33F