Ralph Wiggum

Weeklies should be interesting later.

PSU says just wait, the great opportunity is right around the corner. Isotherm says we lost our opportunity and Feb is trash. Choose wisely.

gfs para says stay patient, early Feb will be rockin!

This clipper behind the departing storm (moving into the 50/50) is not surprisingly starting to dig more in response to the PNA ridge flexing more. Take it for what it is worth at range, but the NAM likes the chances for this one and shows potential. Verbatim these maps are honking tbh. But again, NAM at range. As I have been saying LR tracking will likely fail us this year whereas threats are more likely to pop in the short/medium range due to the chaotic fast NS.

HP in N Plains replaced with LP. Minor changes

Looked to me the NAO tries to link up with the SER which isn't crazy in this progression given the PAC. Remember, the PAC is running the show here essentially and if the ridge in the central PAC backs and pumps enough, then the SER naturally has a response to flex. Couple that with the retrograding NAO that attempts to link up and the pattern is teetering precariously on caving in on itself. Not saying this is right, but is certainly a viable solution given the progression in the PAC. You have been spot on discussion of the progression in the NAO, but we should be taking notes in recent times on how the PAC is dictating the conus pattern Moreso in recent years and what may have been gold just a few years ago has changed quite a bit. Again, not saying this is correct, but just something to consider.

We should have a clipper system early in the week as an appetizer to lay down some foundation. Then maybe something around the 21st is being sniffed out. The pattern looks like a powder keg about to go off around the 26th. So plenty of tracking chances coming up. I agree that yes, some of us, myself included, have forgotten that these patterns really test your patience but have a very high probability of working out for us eventually. Go Flyers!

Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system

I pretty much agree with everything u said. And I'm convinced we WILL score and likely score big. Patience will pay off. Just have to see if its gonna be a one and done, a couple of weeks of sustained winter with a couple of SECS, a slow buildup to a consistent producing pattern, a KU Archambault event, etc. It will happen sooner than later and my confidence is sold on the fact the HL blocking isn't going anywhere even when the LR and weeklies at the end were showing otherwise. We are kicking the pattern flip can over and over and that is a great sign. Like someone else said, this isn't a shutout look where we aren't scoring. This is a pretty much sustained workable pattern evolving with loads of chances. We've just had a string of poor luck past 10 days. Things are about to break in our favor.

And there is your gradient pattern overunning look. Juicy and west to east. We can get some of our biggest thumps with these. Let's keep it going!

Stuffing I made was baby kale, butternut squash, caramelized onion, toasted pecan, craisins, pears, and blue cheese. Back to wx....

JMA is on board but isn't seeing the block. Transfers too late and holds the primary too long....classic bias. HP is in a half decent spot for this range. Eta: going back to making meatloaf. Enjoy your afternoon. Hope this is optimistic enough

This is 3 days in a row the Euro has been sniffing something out on the 21st.

Guidance picks up CAD better as we get closer. Especially under a block with 50/50 confluence.

Doesn't matter. Hug the living piss outta that shit bro!

Instead of day 10 we have a day 8 threat on the Euro. That is actually something substantial to take with more cautious optimism. If it continues to get closer as it has been for a couple days we may be in legit tracking business in the MR thread! I'm hopeful on this one....the tellies say this is real.

I'm not being pessimistic. I'm actually still cautiously optimistic. Just impatient like many of us are becoming. Heck, if it takes until the last week of Feb to score thats still a win. The waiting is the hardest part. And yes @psuhoffman u r right I forget about the midrange thread.

I'm willing to bet, maybe not this week, but at some point soon we will back into a system in the MR that wasn't progged on a day 9-10 maps as being anything substantial.

Cmon, I can't possibly be the only one noticing that we have been kicking the can on day 9-10 op threats. We went from Jan 3 threat, to Jan 7, to Jan 11, to Jan 15, to Jan 18, Jan 22, and now hearing "but the best setup won't be here until after the 25th". Look, I'm optimistic....keep that HL block and keep throwing chances and eventually we will score. But continually pursuing something on an OP 9-10 days out is torture. Get those 'legit' threats under 144 hrs and we can talk.

Agreed. And if anything the means have been hinting that feature retrogrades West. Even hints it develops into a PNA ridge. Odd evolution but who knows.

Your latitude is on the south side of the gradient there.

Me neither sooooooo could you please post it?

Do you mean wrt posting a 300+ hr op surface map or the relentlessness of the shred factory? I assumed we could lock in that map

P10/P22 blend please and I'm good for the month of January.