Ralph Wiggum

We don't need insane vodka cold nor do we want that. Also as many have been stating, pattern doesn't start filtering in until closer to mid month which is after 10 days. Eta: Most of those mean + anomalies occur in the next 6-7 days it appears

Weeklies, analogs, LR ensembles, telleconnections. Whoever would use an op GFS for LR forecasting probably would benefit from a new hobby.

At least 3 individual threats the next 10 days. Mongolian dome of cold already beginning stages of filtering over the pole. So many vorts flying around none of these systems will be realized in the LR....more SR and MR tracking.

This is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. Our standard nickel/dime events. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened

As I posted a few days ago, this is the most likely pattern where we are headed....clippers. maybe a nickel/dime event. Could even see one of them explode off the coast under the block ala 96. When the flow out west off the coast finally splits and/or energy starts undercutting the massive ridge off the W Coast we should see SW flow events with overunning going up and over the developing SER into the dome of cold air established under the weakened NAO ridging which is what we want. Patience.

Yeah I'm wondering if we actually enter a clipper pattern (after years without one) under the block/ridge for a bit with some overunning events ejecting out of the SW undercutting the ridge off the W Coast as the blocking relaxes. We've had those patterns before and I have a suspicion we may ne headed that route when the cold finally begins to enter the US after the 15th.

Well, I did say during that storm in a post here to give me that same storm track in January and we can talk. Might get my wish.

Euro loves this system. Too much lol. Over amped and at mouth of Delaware Bay. Fun tracking ahead.

JB...he loves the Vodka Cold. Hey, isnt that a BINGO block?

Was just pointing out this looks to be another case of ppl calling for the SWE to be the biggest most significant warming since sliced bread and now looking to be possibly not quite the extreme extent originally thought. Still needs expansive scientific study and is generally discussed in depth by many without really understanding how and why it happens (SWE) and what the actual impacts irt apparent weather in the trop results.

While I agree, I think the tag team of PNA/EPO vs AO/NAO will only dance together for a brief period and not sustained. But as we know having them work together at all is a hard task. So yes, it looks like we are potentially seeing a rare and favorable albeit brief window where they all work together. We don't need perfection in the tellies from now thru mid March. This would work. Eta: my point was keep expectations low and don't expect a perfectly sustained H5 for the next 9 weeks...tho I think others have already done well at noting this also.

But, but, but....it isnt a perfect H5 look, 96 isn't repeating, and Ji still doesn't have 5 feet of digital snow.

So wait, the SWE didn't play out as expected and no SPV split or wind reversal in the trop? Huh, go figure.

We've had a few bouts of wintry weather over the past 10 days...nothing major but the slowly evolving hemispheric pattern change has been taking place. There should continue to be tracking chances over the next 10 days as well. Suppression may actually be an issue tho (too much of a good thing) until we hit mid month when the EPO and PNA begin to move colder air over into our source regions and the NAO block relaxes. I dont see the HL blocking fading completely this winter....it has become our base state. But we should see ebbs and flows with the AO/NAO as it seesaws between +/- as well as the PNA/EPO doing the same. This has been our base state of the NAM this season so far. Both PAC and ATL will play a dance and I doubt both work together favorably for sustained periods though transiently I could see both sides being very favorable for us. The nice thing thus far is even tho the PAC has been meh, it has not been completely hostile like last year. Long story short, next 10 days will provide a few more tracking chances but the real fun begins mid month onwards as the NAO relaxes and a quasi CPF begins to help our cold air source region in Canada.

And how did that work out for you? I am really beginning to believe you are just here for the digital snow and not the real thing.

Agreed! And ffs how much for DC and Philly, respectively?

Again, thanks for the hot take. Not sure how the forum is going to survive when you move to FL.

K cool. Thanks for the hot take on the day 12 operational model surface map.

That is a very cool site....thanks for sharing. Sitting outside tracking overhead flights and seeing their destination on the site. Often pondered at times where certain flights were headed.

It is my understanding that they continually add more data receptors in those sparse regions and are continually making improvements. Not saying the sparse data region think isn't valid....but I think the days of using that as a forecasting crutch are likely behind us.

PD4

Displaced Alaskan trof/West Coast ridge SSW mucked things up Nina climo March will rock SER flex at end of run

NAVGEM:

In the discussion forum, some have moved past the threat on the 8th, past the @WxUSAF storm on the 11th/12th, and have started targeting specific events after January 15. Feels like a normal winter around here.

We fail often when we do the sacrifice storm 1 for storm 2 thing. It's somewhere in the weenie handbook between hunting epic patterns that are a near-guarantee to produce and storms manufacturing their own cold with marginal antecedent airmasses.