Ralph Wiggum

Thanks smart-arse

What is that I see in the EPO region??

What other year do we get a track like that during prime climo and no snow even in the highlands? Oh right....last year.

Honestly it wouldn't be the first time in recent weeks the geps led the way. <weenie>Maybe because it is a Canadian model it is seeing the higher heights in HL better, eh.</weenie> Eta: On a serious note, we are seeing the first wave push thru with the associated slp acting as a quasi 50/50 aiding in better confluence over the NE. This is evident with decent HP and CAD now showing up across guidance. The eps maps someone posted above are a clear example of models seeing confluence under the blocking and HP.

Impressive for an ens mean....has the lp close to tracking under DC now. Major changes here.

0z op didn't agree as much with the 0z ens map above,, but now at 6z it is coming together and much more evident on both. Finally getting nearer in time. Trying to get a link between the nao and pna ridge with a sprinkling of an epo extention bridging across.

Ghosts of 1994 for interior on the GGEM

Not seeing that. Step back in pac vs 18z. NAO tries to retrograde to epo at the tail end. So we *maybe* move towards a better PAC at the cost of losing the good Atl side. Chances of having both sides working together are slim this year. Actually its always rather rare...doesn't happen often at all.

Noted, ty

With the strat stuff, I side with Tom (isotherm) in that it is overly discussed given there is little scientific correlation wrt how it works and affects real weather at the surface on a hemispheric scale. Neither he nor I are saying it is garbage as the only way to learn is to study it. But relying so much on a variable that most of the pros admittedly still don't understand is not the preferred way to forecast in the long range. It is mostly used as a straw for grasping at this point in time.

We had daughter triplets wrt PV last year and still failed. We do fail so damn well it almost feels like winning.

Which pattern? The best looking pattern in 24 years?

So you're telling me there's a chance?

When was the last time we had a clipper pattern? I mean legit winter where we had a couple of clippers. I feel like years ago we used to get on avg 2 or 3 per year. They were 1-3"/2-4" events but they seemed so commonplace. I dont even remember when we had a single Alberta clipper tbh. 2013?

You were already reaped....the first in fact. Stay in your place of rest ... in peace...and silence

I'm glad it has alot of support.

Its something anyway. But aren't we going backwards again? Went from great day 7 looks, to great day 10 looks, to great day 15 looks. Fingers crossed anywho.

I remember when we would get snowstorms at least once every other year with temps in the teens or low 20s during the entire event. It seems anymore just getting 2m temps near freezing is a struggle and keeping from mixing with rising temps during a snowfall is a common theme. Were we just spoiled for decades?

Finally into Wiggum rule territory. Worked out on Christmas Eve earlier than normal with flakes the next day. If we can hit 60 this Friday let's get more flakes flying within the next 5 days.

Bob Chill? Is that you?

Its like going out to a fancy ice cream parlor with your date to get their gourmet homemade ice cream in their handmade waffle cones. You place your order but you only receive the waffle cone....no ice cream. And the cashier just acts like oh well, maybe next time. Pattern and storm track in prime climo minus the most important ingredient (cold air) stinks.

How do you like the sliders on the 6z?

Sous vide is nice. Great looking rib roast you got there!

Shame it is way out there but as many have already stated...patience. This year is different with the NAO/AO looks and the AO has already established itself in negative and the NAO is in short range now. This is not a bad look AT ALL: If we can get the PAC to look even remotely close to that we will be in business.

A few posters were already into the first week of February so hearing mid January is actually somewhat refreshing.