Jump to content

Ralph Wiggum

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,110

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Ralph Wiggum
    Really? Ova? Not debating far N and W areas jackpotting. Discussing implications for marginal mixing areas around i95. Want to caution you in using the Euro for short range wrt micro situational forecasting such as CAD and banding. Defer to higher resolution mesos as lead times shrink. Entering 3k territory now.
  2. Ralph Wiggum
    As I watch 6z roll in, it should be noted the NAM has trended 2-3mb stronger with the HP in SE Canada over the past 5 model runs and continues to show better CAD and ll cold in the area. Mixing still an issue along i95 but trend should be watched for future changes irt mix line advancement.
  3. Ralph Wiggum
    NAM has come quite a ways since 0z yesterday wrt ll cold and wind vectors.
  4. Ralph Wiggum
    Moderate snow in Blue Bell
  5. Ralph Wiggum
    Agreed. Just good to see that trend stop and even reverse. Maybe windshield wiper effect or maybe going to continue. Up next....rgem.
  6. Ralph Wiggum
    12z NAM stopped the trend and came in colder....so thats refreshing for anyone who put stock in the NAM at range last day or so. Eta: upon farther inspection actually took a sizeable move to the rgem wrt track and intensity
  7. Ralph Wiggum
    What concerns me is the sw energy continues to be sampled stronger which yields a more amped system. I think this trend is real irt the sw strength. We see this alot when energy comes onshore out West. Our saving grace/hope for i95 is going to be the 50/50, confluence, and hp ... whether those can hold and help counter the strengthening slp. RGEM says we can do it. EPS says nope im gonna dislodge the blocking and 50/50. Fun times.
  8. Ralph Wiggum
    So the RGEM, GFS, and GEFS tick SE but the NAM, Euro and EPS are ticking NW. Talk about a split. My money is 55/45 in favor of the latter group with the end result being near the middle with a lean to the Euro.
  9. Ralph Wiggum
    6z Euro followed the NAM...mixing into the LV. So like the op said, rgem is likely out to lunch. Going to be intense banding somewhere N and W tho.
  10. Ralph Wiggum
    Rgem is probably closer wrt the banding features than most globals. Just a matter of pinpointing where.
  11. Ralph Wiggum
    GEFS continues to tick SE. Not sure how reliable the ens are at a 60 hr range.
  12. Ralph Wiggum
    6z NAM vs 6z RGEM:
  13. Ralph Wiggum
    On one hand the 6z NAM comes in and wants to bullseye Western PA.....then the RGEM comes out moments later and I damn near pass out seeing 2-3' across SE PA. Epic model war. One of these mesos is about to fail miserably. Truth probably lies in between?
  14. Ralph Wiggum
    Not sure I trust the GFS for qpf depiction. Always seems tight with gradients and less expansive than say the Euro or the mesos in that regard. Tends to run drier overall as well.
  15. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is another dumping for us. No red flags, steady as she goes. Eta: Light snow thru Thursday evening wow. 24 hrs+
  16. Ralph Wiggum
    Better track for DC and BWI this run. I wouldn't put much stock into banding or lack thereof on the gfs global. Wait for mesos to get in range. Great trend for my Southern friends imo.
  17. Ralph Wiggum
    HP doing its dirty work. Filthy!
  18. Ralph Wiggum
    GFS is going to make friends tonight.
  19. Ralph Wiggum
    My wife said that to me once.....and now 2 kids later.
  20. Ralph Wiggum
    A few steps below the major models (GFS, EURO, CMC) but one step above the jv models (NAVGEM, JMA). Probably could be compared to the ukie. It is notorious for screwing up thermals and doesn't show mixing....either snow or rain. Use it for general guidance and to see which other models it trends towards and that can provide some useful clues for forecasting.
  21. Ralph Wiggum
    RGEM is insane for SE PA. Epic banding. 24" lolli a few miles from me. Saving this map for archival purposes. Doubt that even comes close.
  22. Ralph Wiggum
    ICON is an improvement. Stronger better positioned hp/CAD...thus colder. Starting to come around to other guidance finally.
  23. Ralph Wiggum
    I wouldn't rule out the mix line getting to my area in Central Bucks but there will be enough moisture to provide snow depth prior to AND after the mix line punches thru then falls back. And that's still an IF the line gets this far N and W.
  24. Ralph Wiggum
    Every other model is at least 10" here conservatively and the NAM is widespread 1-4" PHL, Delco, Chester, Montco, and Bucks? Ok.
  25. Ralph Wiggum
    The NAM either needs to be retired or is dire need of an upgrade. When was the last major upgrade aside from adding the 3k resolution? At range the 12k is horrid.
×
×
  • Create New...