Ralph Wiggum

That silly model is hell bent on giving us a major sleet event. All by itself it appears. Im fairly certain we can chalk it up to the NAM doing typical NAM stuff at range. If you follow the 500mb vorticity maps and compare with 18z there are improvements until about hour 54 irt slightly better confluence, slower departing hp, and better organization/tilt to the bowling ball coming across the Plains. Then at 54 hrs the surface gets all wonky. By this time tomorrow we should have a classic NAMming under our belts....I thought we were headed there just now until it got whack with the slp placement running into a deeper and better positioned hp.

It sure does!! Still has that damn subsidence thing right over my area in Central Bucks. Different than the dry slot we saw progged earlier. This looks like a subsidence zone behind the area of insane frontogenic lifting. Going to be tough to nail that area down. I mean would it matter that much though we are talking the difference between 20" and 13" lol. At this point after the past few years I'm quite happy with a Warning criteria system.

GEFS are moist.

New thread started. I'll take the heat if its jinxed.

Put all discussion here for the upcoming December 16-17 winter storm. Let's keep it on point and clean.

Again, not saying we will continue to see the slp tick farther N before moving East BUT you need only look at the most recent example on our doorstep for tomorrow. That system was progged well to the South just 36 hours or so ago then began ticking N and amping more each run. Now this should help the system for Wednesday, but it needs to be watched as this is the 3rd system this month already to come farther N. Not my final call at all, just saying it shouldn't come as a shock to anyone if we continue seeing the trend. The saving grace for Wednesday is CAD....confluence, a 50/50, and some blocking up top.

Bingo

Dry slot as system briefly closes off and starts occluding. Not sure if that trend is correct or not yet. At work not much time to digest everything.

Yep, surprised nobody mentioned the closing off at h5 and the comma head opening up pushing the dry slot up into SE PA.

12z suite takeaway i95 and 10 miles n and w are losing wiggle room.

Not my forum, you guys can start it whenever. I know Im not doing it....im superstitious and don't want the blame when the NAM scores a win lol.

Lol, you guys even mention snowblower tuneup then the NAM comes in with the farthest N and W track of any model. Admittedly I dont put any stock in a 78hr NAM map but I just thought that was funny. Eta: Verbatim the NAM is an epic sleet storm for most of SE PA

Has 13" for you and I. We gladly take. Eta: The 'odd' look is because there is a transfer happening at the exact 96hr panel so it appears as 3 or 4 meso lows.

Shhhhhhhhh, don't jinx it. Only thing keeping this from meeting max potential is it doesn't close off at H5 and crawl. It is a relative fast mover that will have high rates (1-3"/hr). But a full phased overly amped up system probably isn't what we want either given the current track and already smelling the r/s line near I95. More than giddy where we stand now, don't want to be greedy. Ready to lock it up!

The energy is over the Pacific and won't be sampled properly until Monday 12z.

Dont like seeing the trof slow down more each run allowing the confluence to weaken and the hp to escape. Curious to see if the ens agree with the op.

Losing that warm fuzzy feeling. 18z GFS is a decent tick N and W and quite a bit of mixing being shown. Jackpot shifted central PA.

You need to post here more often. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

All the big ones mix, so there's that. One run not a huge concern. Didnt care for it showing up on the ens means tho. May be cause for concern if the trend continues. Probably just a blip/noise tho.

Euro ens are hinting tucked system and mixing well inland....warm nose. Hoping thats just noise but make me a bit apprehensive to pull the trigger for SE PA even nearby burbs.

A mid DEC 1-2 footer from DC to BOS is a HECS. Im not speaking just in terms of Philly. GEFS mean snowfall for midweek is 10" here. Wowser!!

Canadian is a HECS with 1-2' in the megalopolis from DC-BOS.

Thats one way to end a snow drought!

I know the rgem has at range. Can't confirm that on the ggem.