Ralph Wiggum

The worrisome part is the west-based looks we were getting continue to degrade and get kicked down farther into the LR. Imho, if we are pinning the winter on hoping a SWE can help us, we are in trouble. Just being realistic here.

12z suite not very encouraging at all. Maybe time to come to the realization things have changed and we can't even score in a decent pattern anymore. More likely to score in a convoluted fluke regime anymore.

If we can manage a fluke snow in a crud pattern surely we can manage something during a half decent one.

You should visit @WxWatcher007 or take a road trip to the Tughill region of NY. We'll have chances over the next 4 weeks. Not going to be wall-to-wall. Just have to have patience and the windows will present themselves eventually.

Actually looks remarkably close to the 12z euro....just more separation between PJ and STJ on the CMC

After the GFS took the Euro weeklies to school last year, I think many are hesitant to jump on them right now until more credibility has been re-established.

Mesos have snow squalls throughout the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Merry Christmas!!

I know the gfs para is run sort of sporadically but is this para supposed to eventually replace the gfs op?

Not a massive fan of the gefs either.

"It isnt reading the blocking properly" "The pattern is just beginning to get established as is evident by hr 384" "The impulse that will kickstart the wintry pattern is out over the Pacific still" "It's an off-hour run" "But as long as the Euro shows something at day 10 the GFS is likely out to lunch" "GFS isn't realizing the strength of the SWE down in the trop yet"

Same here. Probably came off the dead coyote roadkill across the street from my house.

Soooo, we're moving on to late Jan now?

Mean eps has that pesky east-based -NAO.

One would think we were tracking a Cat 3 in Sept if there was no context to this post.

Miller A? True unicorn! That isnt a slider look. Follow the bagginess in isobars. Like psu said could go either way. Plus, its 10 days+ out so no sense debating it but my take is that would turn NE/ENE and not E.

Agreed. I mean...there's your unicorn. Let's see what Ji and the EPS say

Day 10 Euro looks...interesting. Same interesting 10 day look as yesterday....and the day before....and the day before. Seeing a theme. Need this look to start moving up in lead time. Verbatim that is a nice Baffin Block developing and a sweet -AO....but 10 days.

If it were only 10 days later when we hit 60F the Wiggum Rule would apply and we would likely see flakes within 5 days. However, based on 12z suite we should have ample opportunities moving forward

When the thermometer hits 60 and the thunder starts clapping.

Extremely dumbed down and simplified, but follow the streamline (green arrow) around the EPO ridge. Not a true CPF but a better look to get 'some' negative temp anomalies down into the US. And we better hope that EPO look is even remotely close, because if that PAC firehose into the West Coast verifies per that map without some AO/NAO blocking holding which would allow the PJ to dip South into the GL and Northeast, then we are in trouble.

Wet rub or dry rub?

Already seeing posts in the main thread from folks moving on into mid January. Deja vu. But alas, all we need is just a little patience and potential.

There we go. Thats the look we need to get the cold air that's locked up in Siberia/Mongolia over the pole into a better region to tap. Now get that look under 7 days!

We need a cold air source imho. I realize near normal could work but if we are going to truly cash in on this potential pattern, relying on antecedent AN temps won't cut it as we saw last week. That incredible dome of BN anomalous temps bottled up on the other side of the Hemisphere needs to budge. There just is no cold source to the North and lack of expansive snow cover isnt helping to keep any BN stuff in tact...it keeps moderating if you look at maps over the past 3 weeks or so. If we can get a CPF we could be in business but even that generally takes 10 days or so to migrate the cold source across the N Hemisphere. I dont know man....we are seeing great H5 looks on the ens for a bit now wrt NAO but can't even muster a fantasy storm. That is a sad reality. Eventually we will get something....just hope it isn't a one and done deal late Jan then early spring in Feb as many winter outlooks called for.

Define 'potential'.