Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Agreed! And ffs how much for DC and Philly, respectively?
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Again, thanks for the hot take. Not sure how the forum is going to survive when you move to FL.
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K cool. Thanks for the hot take on the day 12 operational model surface map.
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That is a very cool site....thanks for sharing. Sitting outside tracking overhead flights and seeing their destination on the site. Often pondered at times where certain flights were headed.
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It is my understanding that they continually add more data receptors in those sparse regions and are continually making improvements. Not saying the sparse data region think isn't valid....but I think the days of using that as a forecasting crutch are likely behind us.
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PD4
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Displaced Alaskan trof/West Coast ridge SSW mucked things up Nina climo March will rock SER flex at end of run
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NAVGEM:
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In the discussion forum, some have moved past the threat on the 8th, past the @WxUSAF storm on the 11th/12th, and have started targeting specific events after January 15. Feels like a normal winter around here.
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We fail often when we do the sacrifice storm 1 for storm 2 thing. It's somewhere in the weenie handbook between hunting epic patterns that are a near-guarantee to produce and storms manufacturing their own cold with marginal antecedent airmasses.
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Thought we wanted that storm to move into the 50/50 for next week (11th/12th)?
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I'm more interested in the 11th/12th than the 8th thing tbh. Upper air pattern looks good. Just surprised at how skewed the means are at the surface still. Key lies at H5 tho at this range.
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The ensemble means have little interest surprisingly vs the ops.
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You mentioned the similarities wrt that vort to March 2001. We all know how that worked out. I'm still not intrested yet in this potential. Too many timing concerns and things that need to go just right imho.
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U just answered a question I posed for you. Ty. Wasnt seeing much on any ensembles.
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Appears to me the weak solutions slide. The stronger lows ride. Makes complete sense thus why we have been saying weak sauce likely won't cut it with this one and we actually want a propertly timed phase. Still time...mixed solutions still attm.
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@CAPE How did you fare in this one?
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January 3 - 4 Snow Sleet ZR and Rain to Snow obs
Ralph Wiggum replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
Interestingly winds have veered around within the past 90 mins from 4 mph SE to 7 mph N. -
January 3 - 4 Snow Sleet ZR and Rain to Snow obs
Ralph Wiggum replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
Moderate graupel/snow mix....mostly snow. Everything including roads are coated. 33F -
January 3 - 4 Snow Sleet ZR and Rain to Snow obs
Ralph Wiggum replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
Light coating on all surfaces here. Still holding at 33 with snow. -
January 3 - 4 Snow Sleet ZR and Rain to Snow obs
Ralph Wiggum replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
33 and snow -
Pics or it didn't happen.
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JMA looks like the GGEM
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Euro op breaks down the NAO also rather abruptly. Replaces it with more of a WAR look. Might not be a transient displacement though....not quite sure yet. Could the SWE somehow be having the reverse effect of what we hoped?
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This would work.
