Ralph Wiggum

Weeklies after week 2 have been horrendous this year. Mostly the opposite has verified honestly.

The trajectory isn't straight out of the N Pole rather it comes across the Northern tier from the PAC NW....odd. I just hope we don't get shafted.

Im not PSU but....Trof digs in the west, flat SER thanks to -NAO raging keeping it at bay. Waves eject out of SW and head NE and overrun the cold air locked in via confluence under the 50/50. Think thump.

If we end up just N of that gradient it could be quite the fun! So maybe we nix the clipper pattern altogether and head straight into SWFE?

Wait. He predicted what the model would predict with help from his "predictor"? I think I've heard it all. So is this the new forecasting... we predict what we think the models will show? Count me in!

SWF pattern incoming. Overrunning central.

The stj is constipated and every wave that actually comes thru the Southern Rockies hits a wall in E TX and stops moving East.

The pattern with the cold air establishing in our source region is just starting in 3 days. Im cautiously optimistic. If we fail, so be it. If we score then I make naked snow angels.

Day 10?

Maybe Apocalypse Now

This is what his "predictor" is showing? Is that akin to spinning the roulette wheel?

Every time thus far that the PAC has tried to dig the trof into the SW or off the SW coast, the Nina laughed in its face and said nope, move along and stay N. With the map I posted, the other scenario we could score in is in fact digging the trof in those areas, splitting the flow, and having sw's eject out of the Southwest and provide overunning. I alluded to this last week stating the clipper look and the SWFE (gradient) setups are two possible wintry patterns I could see this heading. Many have stated gradient patterns seem rare anymore and with the Nina, that statement could certainly continue to have merit. But that's my take on how things may evolve over the next 3 weeks.

Imho that may be the scenario we need to put our chips on for the foreseeable future. We've clearly seen already why during a Nina it is hard to get something to come up out of the stj....shear city thanks to the fast NS. Once anything gets North of say the Hatteras latitude, generally speaking, it get shredded or just bullied ENE. Until that NS slows down or gets more convoluted later in the season, outside of a fluke event, we will be tracking short range NS disturbances more often than not. Now get that fast flow look in the map I posted to set up just under us, and that's the look we want for clippers to deliver. Every once in a while they hit the coast and bomb out too when they run into WAR. So its like a rapid fire lottery...we can get many chances for 1-3"/2-4" events with such a setup. I think most here would take anything at this point. Now watch 12z mock me and roll in chock full of stj systems, Miller A's and bombing stj coastals.

I was hopeful we would enter a clipper pattern after the 20th and we still could. With the NS ripping, getting something to amplify and phase with the stj is going to be a challenge. Less of a challenge would be to get the HL ridging to nudge the NS disturbance track towards our latitude which would provide disturbances to push thru originating downstream of the EPO aka Alberta Clipper/Manitoba Mauler/Saskatchewan Screamer. I lump all 3 together as 'clippers' or simply northern stream disturbances.

LR GEFS/GEPS aren't horrible. SER is losing steam and the NAO/AO rebuild toward the end. Central PAC ridge blob is roaring though but it extends up into a blended WPO/EPO thumb ridge. Still looks like a ripping NS embedded with sw after sw but I wouldn't call it a shutout look either. Sorry in advance for the crap graphics:

Browns were my dark horse going in and I plan on riding them to the AFC championship, maybe farther. KC is going to get upset also. You're welcome.

It looks like the only thing blocked is energy in the stj. Yet there is no mechanism to block it. Its like any energy in the south never moves East it just drags its feet completely blocked up like a bad case of constipation. Yet the epic NAO block has energy just flying all around it, under it, over it, and everywhere else. Never seen anything like it.

GGEM is just dangling carrots now laughing at us. Seriously, what else do we need to have happen here? PNA axis in ideal spot, -NAO, -AO, weak 50/50, big energy moving across, slight SER to keep it from sliding. And the surface ends up with a sheared out nothing burger.

Any other winter we would be looking down the barrel of a loaded gun with this look. Smfh...

Its over.

Typical Nina progressive and fast NS.

This just goes to show how much of a challenge it is to get a MECS. Often times we go thru periods of being somewhat spoiled. Soooo many things need to happen properly even in an epic pattern to produce. Timing, temperature, ridge/trof amplitude, spacing, etc. Maybe 1 out of every 4 times these great tellies setup do we actually score. That ratio is a rough guess but I believe some folks think every time things align will yield a MECS. Wish it worked like that but sadly it doesn't. "Should" the coming pattern or relaxing of said pattern produce? Probably. Will it? Tbd.

Why? We can't even score in a good pattern it seems. Heck, if we don't score over the next 2 weeks which takes us to the 24th I say reshuffle the deck and hope we back into something in some oddly convoluted pattern with unfavorable tellies. Eta: ninja'd by @WinterWxLuvr

Is that area of extreme neg anomalies over Europe/Scandinavia a function of the SWE do you think? That is quite a neg anomaly right there.