Ralph Wiggum

Thanks for doing that research. This is what I made a post about earlier...years featuring the -AO/-NAO in Dec-Jan generally have produced a SECS/MECS. I just wasn't 100% sure on the enso phases in those years, so again thanks. Im keying on Jan 28-Feb 7 give or take as a 10ish day stretch to produce at least 1 widespread SECS for the region, with 'possibly' as many as 3 solid threats total. I know you are interested in the 26th threat leading up. Im not 100% sold on that one just yet even tho it look more interesting on the euro family now, as that could be the last in the progression before we transition to a more workable(?) look. But we seem to both agree the period beyond that one does look just as good, probably even better with some relaxing up top.

I know its the gfs op at range but there is your HA signature. Long duration overunning while ull catches up and meets at the coast last days of Jan while the AO/NAO relax/flip. Get a better PNA ridge out west even if transient and we will be talking KU during the waning days of Jan thru Feb 7ish.

I'm certainly not using 2010 as an analog, tho there r similarities as u noted. I went back and looked at past 25 winters with sustained -AO/-NAO and most featured some sort of SECS/MECS as the pattern transitioned. Now I didnt factor enso into that. Maybe if I get a chance I will do so later.

Which is exactly my point....we aren't scoring during the heart of the epic blocking pattern. We are likely going to hit when the pattern breaks down or flips completely. Might be a one-off, who knows? But chances seem higher than usual for a HA event this season.

I definitely think most of Feb is in dire trouble which is also partly the reason there will be a 7-10 day window for opportunity waning days of Jan thru around the 7th of Feb, give or take a day on either side, as the overall pattern transition/breakdown to a more Niña regime transpires.

I agree with you 100%. We haven't seen a sustained +PNA. But we have seen brief windows where the PNA is positive AND/OR also where there is a split flow off the West Coast. My thought is that we will get a window somewhere during the range I posted above where the AO and NAO go weak negative or closer to neutral (rather than the -3 or -4 SD) AND the PNA ridge pops, even if transient. We maybe even back into some sort of hybrid split pattern just off or on the immediate West Coast with one branch in British Columbia and the other coming around the Baja.

Yep. Not saying we can't back into something over the next 12 days or so but chances are the shred factory suppression and cutter/late transfer pattern continues. Been saying for a bit that our best chances during this next 12ish days would be via some sort of clipper and I stick by that thinking. Maybe we sneak in some overunning thump when the trof digs into the Southwest and ejects wave(s) out under the gradient behind the confluence. But the better opportunities for a region-wide score looks to be after the 28th when the AO and NAO migrate to a more normalized near-neutral look. Temps will always be a concern but this deep into winter we won't need a massive EPO or vodka cold. Of course cutters could still be in play but with the SER pushed back this increases the support for my thoughts that post Jan 28th thru at least Feb 7 is the period to wait on and continue practicing patience. People are getting ansy, especially me, but I'm seeing more hope than I normally chirp about and I generally refrain from being overly optimistic wrt LR looks.

Don't want to be "that guy" but after Jan 28th the pattern looks better imo with ridging migrating back to the PNA region and the NAO not quite as intense. That is probably the look that we will need as the confluence under the current block is just too much. Normally I wouldn't look that far ahead but this is the first time this entire winter there looks to be something more likely to produce with less extreme tellies yet all in the right places. Guess what I'm saying is we clearly aren't scoring with epic near-textbook HL blocking so after the 28th we are seeing less extreme and more relaxed 'normal' looks and I'm winning to wager IF that look holds is when we will ALL start seeing things produce. Patience.....this winter isn't anywhere near over just yet.

And for comparison Ji has been on these boards since the early-mid 90s and in his late 40s/early 50s.

Those threats are now getting sheared to hell like most of the others this season. This pattern is either sheared/suppressed or cutter in terms of real weather. H5 is pretty good but the surface is just simply unable to produce.

Already vanished on the GFS from last night. Bummer. Euro has a gradient with 60s underneath us.

Some hints we may touch 60F next week. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered ie Wiggum rule (snow within following 5 days of touching 60F in prime climo). Im all for it...cant hurt things any worse.

Honestly, I've been saying March is when we score due to the sustained remnants of HL blocking and the pattern getting more convoluted than usual. Im not giving up until May! Doubt we are going to see anything sustained wrt wall to wall winter weather for weeks on end tho....I've already written that off. And that is fine with me tbh.

T-minus 45 mins til PSU comes in to remind us all that the pattern change is still on target and there are ample opportunities with specific dates and how the progression will evolve.

Yeah, this situation is not ideal. Clipper trajectory is great BUT normally clippers have a departing PV with antecedent arctic air in place to squeeze out every drop of precip from the atmosphere. We don't have that luxury this time which is likely part of what is causing the low surface precip reflection. Maybe we can at least manage a stripe of coating type stuff somewhere but who knows. Eta: yet another example of how a pattern can look great but lack of cold air is killing us. Clipper patterns should produce in mid-late Jan even in the lamest winters. This is rock bottom.

Weeklies should be interesting later.

PSU says just wait, the great opportunity is right around the corner. Isotherm says we lost our opportunity and Feb is trash. Choose wisely.

gfs para says stay patient, early Feb will be rockin!

This clipper behind the departing storm (moving into the 50/50) is not surprisingly starting to dig more in response to the PNA ridge flexing more. Take it for what it is worth at range, but the NAM likes the chances for this one and shows potential. Verbatim these maps are honking tbh. But again, NAM at range. As I have been saying LR tracking will likely fail us this year whereas threats are more likely to pop in the short/medium range due to the chaotic fast NS.

HP in N Plains replaced with LP. Minor changes

Looked to me the NAO tries to link up with the SER which isn't crazy in this progression given the PAC. Remember, the PAC is running the show here essentially and if the ridge in the central PAC backs and pumps enough, then the SER naturally has a response to flex. Couple that with the retrograding NAO that attempts to link up and the pattern is teetering precariously on caving in on itself. Not saying this is right, but is certainly a viable solution given the progression in the PAC. You have been spot on discussion of the progression in the NAO, but we should be taking notes in recent times on how the PAC is dictating the conus pattern Moreso in recent years and what may have been gold just a few years ago has changed quite a bit. Again, not saying this is correct, but just something to consider.

We should have a clipper system early in the week as an appetizer to lay down some foundation. Then maybe something around the 21st is being sniffed out. The pattern looks like a powder keg about to go off around the 26th. So plenty of tracking chances coming up. I agree that yes, some of us, myself included, have forgotten that these patterns really test your patience but have a very high probability of working out for us eventually. Go Flyers!

Nice clipper in the Midwest at the end of the NAM. I would be thrilled with a 1-3"/2-4" cold smoke clipper system

I pretty much agree with everything u said. And I'm convinced we WILL score and likely score big. Patience will pay off. Just have to see if its gonna be a one and done, a couple of weeks of sustained winter with a couple of SECS, a slow buildup to a consistent producing pattern, a KU Archambault event, etc. It will happen sooner than later and my confidence is sold on the fact the HL blocking isn't going anywhere even when the LR and weeklies at the end were showing otherwise. We are kicking the pattern flip can over and over and that is a great sign. Like someone else said, this isn't a shutout look where we aren't scoring. This is a pretty much sustained workable pattern evolving with loads of chances. We've just had a string of poor luck past 10 days. Things are about to break in our favor.