Ralph Wiggum

Lots of NS. Nada good?

The 0z op couldn't get much farther S. I expect it to follow the 6z eps N.

Gradient patterns will do that. Like PSU has been saying, where's the cold tho? In any normal winter the gradient with that look would be 60s to the South and upper single digits/teens not too far N.

Well it hardly drops any precip soooo

GFS is a joke. Flopping every which way every run. Even the GEFS ar 6z were going toward the euro. I bet the 12z GEFS won't support the op.

Squall ripping thru here. Windblown sideways stuff. 36F

Don't worry about the ops just yet dude. Another couple of days. The EPS ticked N again and we are currently still in a good spot on those. GEFS adjusting towards the EPS this AM. Steady as she goes. What I do like is we aren't in the bullseye yet...has been wobbling around N....then S towards DC yesterday....and so far this AM seems to be inching back N on the ens means towards our area. I dont dislike this trend at all right now.

They cancelled winter back in October, even before Ji normally does.

Seems like its the snow Capitol

Flurries in Ivyland. 33F

Do you have the same GEPS and GEFS map for comparison purposes?

EPS and GEPS respectable snow hits for Central and S parts of the PHL region early next week. GEFS ticked in our favor as well but still seems to be sniffing glue. 150 hrs to go. Plenty of time to trend either way. Strong signal on the ens means and a good spot to be attm.

It is becoming clear to me that the Euro/CMC families are handling the west based nao rex a whole hell of alot better than the GFS family. For whatever reason as far back as when the GFS was the MRF I recall it struggling wrt the NS underneath blocking and it seems this is the case still 25 years later amidst all of the upgrades. I could be wrong in my analysis however and the GFS and GEFS may be the one on the right page, but recent trends seem to be in support of Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS.

Jackpot and at the 150hr threshold!

They also have one of the best backup goalies in the league Brian Elliott who stopped 40 tonight in a shutout. This team is the real deal. Long run of ineptitude now finally contenders again.

Fyp

How does that work? NY State is even struggling to get cold air...the GFS has rain to Buffalo half the friggen waves this run yet the sister para can bleed enough polar air to get snow over the SE states? I get suppression, that is a chance we risk with that block, but SE snow with our cold air struggles? I'm not buying it. The only parallel isn't the GFS sister model, its gotta be the universe im apparently living in.

Well, suppression is the bigger concern for next week if we are going to fail. At that point Imma just throw my hands up and question why I enjoy this hobby lol. But I dont think there is cause for alarm yet. We are over 160 hrs out for wave 1 and we have literally run the gamut of solutions today alone. And wave 1 dictates the baroclinic boundary for the followup waves. So just need to keep watching for any trends. The ens means are on board and imo that along with the pattern supporting wintry threats here are what is important attm....not how an ops model bounces around like a jumping bean from one run to the next.

Certainly too early to get discouraged given we've run the gamut of solutions today. But why is it we cannot get a solid trend to make it to the 150 hr lead time?

Why did you make eye contact? Now look what you done.

Were you around with us on usenet when it was ne.weather? And #neweather on MIRC? I have some of those transcripts saved on a floppy disk (remember those?) in the archives. Little Ian used to get so excited at the models back then lol.

You chasin?

Getting a bit ahead but if my memory of this type of pattern progression is correct, should be at 'least' one more trackable threat first week of Feb. Historically in a Nina, this pattern breaks down soon thereafter but there are currently conflicting signals due to another episode of wind reversal in the SPV which could keep NAO blocking around longer suppressing the SER which generally flexes during a Nina in most Febs past.

What exactly is he sniffing again? Eta: damn you @WxUSAF ninja'd

March 2001 scenario. Complicated.