Ralph Wiggum

If this one doesn't work out, there's always another behind it.

Two things confirmed..... 1. Wentz on the Bench 2. Opening one blind to peek out...things suddenly look workable on the ensemble means. Not great....yet...but not the shutout look that was advertised run after run for a while.

I was thinking the same. Workable look.

Definitely going to enjoy watching it. Having gone thru the dismal past few winters, it makes you enjoy these tiny events much more.

Even like a fantasy storm that last for 2 runs would be ok Then you would complain about how bad the models are and how they tease you.

Yep, we need the front to press thru via the low in the Lakes. Haven't seen that work often in recent weeks. Been a general repetitive theme trying to time the GL low progression and front with the trailing low left behind in the SE. Maybe this time works. I know several of us including myself were eyeing mid month before we shut the blinds for a bit, so may this one happens. Eta: GEFS/GEPS vs EPS for that period. EPS flattens the SE/WA Ridge and appears to be allowing the front to press thru potentially setting things up afterward. GEFS/GEPS keep the Nina look we've seen with the SE/WA Ridge where the GL low drifts NNE and the trailing front remains hung up to the West of us.

Not sure. There is the return flow from a 'Bermuda high' which is something that has been prominent for months on-end. Also you have a low in the GL region which recently has been shown to either hang in there or drift N/NE rather than progressing E and dragging a front thru reinforcing cold (which is what you would want looking at that map verbatim). Neither of those things have worked out thus far and imo we are seeing a pattern setting up (Nina?) that favors more of a SW flow behind HP headed for Bermuda as well as LP in the Lakes. If we are going to get things to periodically work for us this season we will need help from the NAO.

Thats exactly where I'm at too. 'Maybe' a brief chance mid-month then crud pattern. Based on historic analogs looking at different tellies, January should provide some chances.

Looks a little like tomorrow's setup.

New England Lucy'd, Euro back to leading the pack, DT on the Mid Atl forum. This is the stuff of lore that we once told our kids about and it's happening again.

I am so sorry to hear this. We are here for you. Hopefully this winter can provide some positive diversion for you. Enjoy those children, they are precious and those ages are some of the most enjoyable as a parent.

DT said the GFS is trash and doesn't handle STJ properly. We're still in the game....if it's a fully loaded 6-shooter roulette game anyway.

Fyp

When DT starts a thread about a snow potential, I am confident entering the thread that there will be little if any GFS chatter and lots of Euro love.

Urban heat island being modeled nicely. Shorts/flip flops and margaritas on the deck for the holiday! 2020 can't end soon enough. 2021 will rock

Revisit this setup in 3 weeks and BAM!

Shades of last 2 winters where the GEFS led the way with the EPS often dangling unicorns then slowly caving.

Shhhh, 12z gfs is night and day vs 6z. Full lat SE ridge at 12z and complete Nina look vs epic neg NAO look from 6z. This looks like that transition we deal with every winter where models are waffling on major pattern change which inevitably ends up dictating a good chunk of winter ahead. Been down this road almost every year....some ya win, some ya lose. Hoping the less Nina look and more favorable blocking will be the theme and not the opposite. Cautiously optimistic. I mean it's 2020, what could go wrong?

If we can get storm tracks this winter like the one forecast for the upcoming weekend, many here wouldnt complain. Benchmark track for SE PA. Hopefully this becomes the default and not the apps runner track that Cecily/Adam think will be repetitive. I'll tag myself, thank you.

EPS not gloom and doom as much as the GEFS and GEPS were for mid month. Holds that Scandinavian ridging which I had mentioned feeding the neg NAO. PAC is also neutralish looking. A workable pattern anyway and not a total shut the blinds look. Key to this winter as I stated in early Nov will he how long and how strong that Scan ridge holds and if it continues to feed the NAO as it has shown since mid Sept. Cautious optimism.

We need that guy that posted the snowfall depth % maps every day last winter to return....STAT!

Last days of November=the new late May/early June.

Too early. Usually late Dec/early Jan thru around Feb 10 that rule works.

Hoping for a reversal of fortune this year as well. Not seeing it thus far. And looking farther down the line at the ensemble means, shades of last winter with a WAR firmly in place, a NPAC flat ridge, and emergence of a SE ridge towards Christmas. Then an all-out PAC puke Nina look later in the month. Hope these modeled looks are wrong of course, but the "norm" seems a whole heck of alot different than it did 6+ years or so ago.