Ralph Wiggum

Tired of kicking the can. The period is producing trackable event but I'm pretty sure I speak for most on here when I say wtf is the point in tracking if all systems fail.

If there are going to be any notable changes with this, it will likely be in the modeling over the next 24-36 hrs as the energy associated with the system moves onshore and traverses the Rockies. With these more significant systems, history has taught us that it is this period that might cause some shifting around, but we'll see. This one looks fairly close on most guidance attm.

PNA ridge is better each run too. Wont make a diff until its offshore tho but would have been nice to get it to amplify more and go negative earlier.

GFS is a nice run after this storm as well. Patience finally paying off??

GEFS...strong clustering N and W (108 and 114):

Geez u couldn't draw the red line 7 miles farther N for me?

GEFS are noice

96 hrs pls

FWIW, the GEFS thru 72 are much weaker and farther N with the tpv piece as well. Should see some more members leaning N this suite.

Going to bed before the euro sh!ts on the parade.

Fringed

If that tpv adjustment N is real, there should be continued improvement at the surface going forward I would think. Took a big jump with that feature.

Ji should like this run...but probably too fast moving for his liking so maybe not

No way this misses.

Might be playing with fire this run....

Noted. Main vort a little less organized but looks farther N. Might offset?

TPV farther N on 0z gfs already evident at 78hrs vs 18z.

Yet the slp is centered over Birmingham, Alabama and trucking ENE. But yeah, H5 looks ok.

Nothing matters till tonight's runs anyway The most important model suite of our lives!

Strongly agree. 250mb winds are ripping as well and aiding in the shred process. The trend has been for sheared and weak, fast flow.

Yep, lowering my expectations here to 1-2" slop....snow showers and sleet showers, blech!!

Exactly why people shouldn't be locking in the Thursday threat at this time. We've seen some wicked adjustments over the past 6 week's events all within 72 hrs of the event. I mean, the Dec storm had DC in the bullseye. Then us 48 hrs prior, then it ended up hammering Binghamton. We've seen several other systems either fall apart or get nudged one way or the other also. I think the block is wreaking havoc on short term modeling. We'll see. I certainly am not sold on the late week thing yet one way or the other tbh. Lots of potential.

JMA honking

Fyp

I believe a congratulations is in order for a good portion of VA. Been a long time coming, you guys deserve this jackpot. And a congrats to DC for their first warning criteria in a long time. Im out up this way, but will track with you guys (if permitted) to share in enjoying your excitement.