Ralph Wiggum

Fringed

If that tpv adjustment N is real, there should be continued improvement at the surface going forward I would think. Took a big jump with that feature.

Ji should like this run...but probably too fast moving for his liking so maybe not

No way this misses.

Might be playing with fire this run....

Noted. Main vort a little less organized but looks farther N. Might offset?

TPV farther N on 0z gfs already evident at 78hrs vs 18z.

Yet the slp is centered over Birmingham, Alabama and trucking ENE. But yeah, H5 looks ok.

Nothing matters till tonight's runs anyway The most important model suite of our lives!

Strongly agree. 250mb winds are ripping as well and aiding in the shred process. The trend has been for sheared and weak, fast flow.

Yep, lowering my expectations here to 1-2" slop....snow showers and sleet showers, blech!!

Exactly why people shouldn't be locking in the Thursday threat at this time. We've seen some wicked adjustments over the past 6 week's events all within 72 hrs of the event. I mean, the Dec storm had DC in the bullseye. Then us 48 hrs prior, then it ended up hammering Binghamton. We've seen several other systems either fall apart or get nudged one way or the other also. I think the block is wreaking havoc on short term modeling. We'll see. I certainly am not sold on the late week thing yet one way or the other tbh. Lots of potential.

JMA honking

Fyp

I believe a congratulations is in order for a good portion of VA. Been a long time coming, you guys deserve this jackpot. And a congrats to DC for their first warning criteria in a long time. Im out up this way, but will track with you guys (if permitted) to share in enjoying your excitement.

Will there be a radio show for the threats this week? Ty

Does anyone know if the euro took a step toward the gfs in the right direction? Haven't seen it posted here yet. Ty

GEFS certainly not horrible

Pretty sure DC folks would be thrilled with a "run of the mill" storm. Cant speak for you tho.

Slowly going the wrong way. Euro and GFS will likely meet in the middle at some point as usual.

NAM at range (all caveats apply) has the boundary for the ull to.follow much farther N imo and is reflected at the surface with a weak precip shield stretching from the slp in the Southwest all the way to upper PA. Or am I way off base here?

So ICON went even more strung out....essentially a nothing burger. UKIE is a nothing burger. And Euro is in that camp? Euro needs to find better friends....it doesn't need that sort of negativity.

Touche. Would like the know which poster on the other forum said that about the GFS. In other news, the NAM at range looks consolidated with the sw in the SW about to move out.

Admittedly I have an unnerving feeling about this one, especially after the reading above where the GFS if it is wrong takes several runs to adjust.

If anything, the GEFS 6z is a decent improvement bs 0z wrt strength, track, and clustering of individual slp. Talk about doubling down. Lost most southern and Eastern outliers from 0z. Basically just played bully and told the euro to get a fricken clue.